The studio comes at the right time. At a time when the European Union agrees to a partial embargo on Russian oil and Moscow selectively restricts its gas shipments to European countries, the Bank of Spain has analyzed the impact that the drastic cut in energy imports from From Russia. It is a scenario that, for the moment, the European Union is reluctant to enter fully, aware of the impact it would have on its economy, especially for Germany, the great European economy and the great dependent on Russian gas.
The conclusion of the Bank of Spain is that a total interruption of the arrival of Russian gas and oil would mean a drop in GDP for Spain of between 0.8% and 1.4%, and an additional increase in inflation of between 0 .8 and 1.2 percentage points throughout the first year.
In the study on the consequences of a hypothetical commercial closure between Russia and the European Union, Javier Quintana, from the Deputy General Directorate of Economy and Research, highlights that the blow would be much greater for other European countries, more dependent on these supplies. Those that would come out worse off are the three big economies and the countries of Eastern Europe. This is the case of Germany, with an impact of between 1.9% and 3.4% on growth, and that of Italy, between 2.3% and 3.9%. For France, the blow would be somewhat less, but also above Spain, between 1.2% and 2%.
These are short-term impacts that would be reduced as Russian imports were replaced. Aware of this, the European Commission has already proposed the RePowerEU programme, aimed at saving energy and diversifying supply sources, but it will take time.
For this reason, the Bank of Spain study calculates the impact in the short term, in the first year, considering that in the longer term the effects would tend to gradually reduce as suppliers are replaced.
Analyzing the damage by sectors, the most affected in the Spanish economy would be those that need a more intensive use of energy, such as transport, heavy manufacturing and the chemical industry. On the other hand, the least affected would be services such as real estate, with practically no impact.
In any case, it must be taken into account that in addition to the direct impact of higher energy prices, these effects are also propagated through the production chains, so that the increase in costs in transport or the chemical industry would have repercussions in other sectors. , although they are not large consumers of energy.
On the other hand, if the interruption of the rest of imports and exports is added to the cut of energy supplies, that is, a total cut of the commercial flow, it would suppose an additional negative impact, although more limited. In the case of Spain, a drop of 0.7 percentage points would have to be added to the impact of the suspension of energy products. Also in this case, the effects are smaller in Spain than in the rest of the European countries.
