Progress in adaptation to climate change is slowing down on all fronts, when it should precisely be accelerated to address the growing impacts and risks derived from the effects of warming. This is indicated by a new report from the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).
Published ahead of the upcoming climate negotiations (COP28) taking place in Dubai (United Arab Emirates), the Adaptation Gap document argues that the adaptation financing needs of developing countries are between 10 and 18 times greater than the international public financial flows they are receiving (which is 50% more than the previous estimate).
“In 2023, climate change became more disruptive and deadly again: temperature records were broken, while storms, floods, heat waves and forest fires caused devastation,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP.
“These intensifying impacts tell us that the world must urgently reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase adaptation efforts to protect vulnerable populations. And neither of those things are happening.
Ambitious adaptation plans (coastal protection, crop adaptation, warning systems, defense against hurricanes...) are necessary instruments to confront climate change, which is particularly important in the case of low-income countries and disadvantaged groups. , as it can reduce losses and damages.
As a result of increasing funding needs and underflows, the current adaptation funding gap is estimated to be between $194 billion and $366 billion per year. At the same time, adaptation planning and implementation appear to be stalled. All of these shortcomings have enormous implications in terms of loss and damage, particularly for the most vulnerable.
The report recalls that current climate action is woefully inadequate to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. And this is what the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, has referred to.
Despite the needs described, multilateral and bilateral public financial flows destined for adaptation to developing countries decreased by 15% in 2021, reaching 21.3 billion (after having increased to 25.2 billion on an annual average between 2018 and 2020).
This drop comes despite promises made at the Glasgow climate conference (COP 26) to deliver around $40 billion per year in financial support for adaptation by 2025. By contrast, funding for mitigation continues .
Five out of six countries have at least one national planning instrument (strategies, policies...), but on the contrary, one sixth of countries do not have it, and progress towards achieving full global coverage is slowing down. The report detects “a growing determination to address climate risks, but more needs to be done to ensure the implementation of planning instruments.”
The number of adaptation actions supported through large international climate funds was lower in 2022 than in the previous year, although their value in economic figures increases due to the greater weight of investments in large projects. Everything indicates that they are “driven fluctuations” due to events such as covid or the war in Ukraine.
Therefore, it is warned that the gap between the actions adopted and the growing climate risks is widening.
In fact, most of the actions implemented by developing countries “depend above all on external financial support.”
“If investments in adaptation measures are not revitalized, this will lead to inevitable climate impacts and further damage afterwards,” it adds.
The 55 economies most vulnerable to warming alone have experienced losses and damages worth more than $500 billion over the past two decades. It is also estimated that these costs will increase markedly in the coming decades, particularly if the absence of forceful measures continues.
Studies indicate that every $1 billion invested in coastal flood adaptation measures leads to a $14 billion reduction in economic damages.
For its part, it is argued that $16 billion invested annually in agriculture would prevent some 78 million people from dying of hunger or suffering from chronic hunger due to climate impacts.
However, neither the goal already agreed in 2019 of doubling international financial flows to developing countries by 2025 nor the current dialogue on establishing a new quantified collective goal for 2030 are alone closing the financing gap for adaptation and will generate to generate such benefits.
The report identifies seven ways to increase funding. The core remains dominated by international public adaptation finance, domestic adaptation spending and private sector adaptation finance.
But four additional potential approaches to closing the financial gap are identified: remittances from migrants to their countries of origin, which often contribute significantly to GDP; an increase in financing tailored to small and medium-sized enterprises, as they make up the majority of the private sector in many developing countries; the reform of the global financial architecture, as proposed by the Bridgetown Initiative (with various proposals to lighten the debt burden); and the application of the article of the Paris Agreement that advocates that financial flows be consistent with the path to low-carbon development,
