The return to Barcelona of the financial entities and companies that moved their headquarters as a result of the political crisis and the banking panic unleashed between the referendum on October 1, 20017, the march to Belgium of the then president Carles Puigdemont and the intervention of the Generalitat by Mariano Rajoy, the president of the central government, under article 155 of the Constitution.
It continues to be a source of concern and passionate debate in Catalan society, especially in the economic and political world. There is no meeting in which some question is not raised related to the possibility that the escapees then undertake the return journey. And despite the fact that almost five years have passed since this mass exodus took place, in the Catalan capital resignation is far from being the dominant sentiment.
The cases of return to Barcelona are anecdotal; They can be counted on the fingers of one hand. Politically, it was an event of indisputable relevance, the reaction of a large part of the Catalan economic elite against the unilateral proclamations of the pro-independence leaders. He rejected the progress of the procés and demanded that the central power act and put a stop to it.
Beyond the political debate, objective analyzes have not yet been published on the economic consequences of these changes of venue, which allows positions to be anchored, always intuitively, with hardly any verifiable data. For some, it has been an unparalleled disaster that, they say, is more clearly detected in the drop in demand for quality business services, especially legal services, which are increasingly moving to other places, especially Madrid. Also in areas such as high-level restaurants, always closely linked to the regular meetings of business leaders. For others, it has not had notable practical effects. The decision centers would continue to be located in their historical headquarters and the new ones would be testimonial or with hardly any activity.
Abundant testimonials both ways. Societies that have begun to move activities to the supervening venues, in a dynamic that can only go further. But also illustrious surnames of the Catalan aristocracy of money who recognize that it is difficult for them to travel to Madrid to hold a council to find the same faces they see every day in Barcelona.
In any case, for the purposes of the possibilities of the return of these companies, it is first necessary to be clear about what triggered the march to see if the problem is still present or is already a thing of the past. The businessmen involved in the march denounced legal insecurity, institutional instability, derived from the unilateral actions of the then pro-independence bloc on the command bridge of the Generalitat. They also considered this hostile to his interests and his image in the rest of Spain, the fear of boycott.
And now those who admit to turning the matter over, at the moment a resounding minority, condition a decision in the opposite direction to the recovery of the political conditions of stability prior to the procés.
How is this return to normality calibrated as those businessmen understood it? At the time, more than three years ago, the recently inaugurated president of Foment, Josep Sánchez Llibre, expressed it by demanding a “formal and unequivocal” declaration from the Government of renunciation of unilateralism.
After the time that has elapsed, it can be inferred that the list of requirements is even broader. A sufficient movement of business return should not only be logically well received in Catalonia; it should also be understood and not taken as an affront in the territories in which they are now staying.
This is a complete change in the political climate in Catalonia and in Spain as a whole that does not depend only on those who govern in Barcelona. As much or more depends on the political will of the majority political forces in the Spanish Parliament.
For the Government of Pere Aragonès, embarked on a contradictory journey of seduction of the business community and the Catalan bourgeoisie, it is strategic to convince Isidro Fainé, the president of the La Caixa Foundation and main reference in the economic world, to take steps in that direction. La Caixa, the most important socio-economic entity in Catalonia, is based in Palma de Mallorca, the capital of the Balearic Autonomous Community, chaired by the socialist Francina Armengol. The central government is responsible for the supervision and control of its activities, through the Ministry of Economy. A scheme that shields her from possible political attacks in Barcelona; it keeps her away from her stormy politics.
It is a journey through two parallel paths. On the one hand, the dialogue between the Governments of the capital of the Kingdom and that of the Generalitat. And the table between Pedro Sánchez and Aragonès, still in its infancy, will only be fruitful to the extent that it comes together in a general agreement. And for this, it must include a new normality based on the closure of the judicial battle, but also on a new financing system and linguistic peace.
The other path refers to the party system, destroyed in Catalonia by the lethal cocktail caused by the financial crisis of 2008 and the politics of the procés. The upper bourgeoisie that moved the social headquarters wants a political force that it considers as its own. As Josep Oliu, the president of Sabadell, has explained these days, this relevant social sector wants to rebuild a moderate nationalist political force that agrees in Madrid with the PP and PSOE. A new CiU. Will it leave the current Junts? The bet that this sector likes the most today. Will ERC manage to overcome their skepticism and become their spokesperson? It seems less likely. Will it be a new proposal? Will have to see.
