The PNV and the PSOE closed yesterday morning, five days after the elections, a global pact to govern together in the main Basque institutions that will have relevant consequences. The first, in terms of Spanish politics, is that the agreement will clearly show that the strategic ally of the Socialists is the PNV, and not EH Bildu. The pact, in fact, closes the way for the Abertzale coalition in important institutions in which it had managed to be the leading force. The alliance will also have a significant impact on Basque politics, although in this case it is presented as a double-edged sword that can take its toll on the jeltzales, since in practice it grants a crucial role to the PP in some places.
From the point of view of the interests of the PSOE with a view to the general elections, the pact has no two ways. Given the evidence that Alberto Núñez Feijóo needs Vox to reach Moncloa, the Socialists have in mind a campaign in which allusions to a hypothetical government with far-right ministers will be recurrent. The PP believed that it had found a valid counter-argumentation in the Government's agreements with EH Bildu in Congress, a kind of and you more that seems to have worked in the last electoral campaign.
The Socialists have opted to remove EH Bildu from the equation, blocking its way in relevant institutions in the Basque Country. In Navarra, in addition, they have already stressed that they will not support the candidate for mayor of the Abertzale coalition in Pamplona, even at the risk of him ruling UPN, and the socialist María Chivite has made it clear that her allies to form the foral government are Geroa Bai, coalition that includes the PNV, and Contigo/Zurekin, although it needs the abstention of EH Bildu. The PSOE's movements in this sense have been rapid and expressive. It is not at all clear, however, that they are going to be enough for the PP to give up what it considers to be an electoral vein.
Attending exclusively to Basque political keys, the alliance has other components. It will allow the PSE to return to govern in a Basque capital 12 years later, at the hands of Maider Etxebarria in Vitoria. In addition, it will give them the opportunity to have a majority in socialist strongholds such as Eibar, Irun, Zumarraga, Lasarte or Ermua.
In the case of the PNV, it will allow it to govern the three provincial councils, it will give it a comfortable majority to govern in municipalities where it has been the leading force, such as Bilbao, and it will give it the opportunity to unseat EH Bildu in some towns where it It has been second force. The problem for the jeltzales and, to a lesser extent, for the Basque socialists is that the alliance does not operate on the same terms as up to now.
This is the case of some of the most important institutions that will decide the pact. In the Vitoria City Council, the investiture of the PSE candidate (second force, with six councilors) to avoid the government of EH Bildu (first force, with seven) will need the support of the PNV (fourth, with six) and, also, the positive vote of the PP (third, with six), since Podemos (two) has announced its refusal. Something similar occurs in the Gipuzkoa Provincial Council, where EH Bildu has prevailed (22 junteros), and the alternative investiture of the PNV (17) needs the support of the PSE (seven) and, likewise, of the PP (three), since Podemos (two) will not enter that sum.
This situation is especially problematic for the PNV in the face of general elections to which it is touched after the results of last Sunday. EH Bildu will look for the wear and tear of the jeltzales alluding to that necessary support from the PP. Its objective is to put the PNV in check again, this time in a general election. Those of Andoni Ortuzar, meanwhile, prioritize maintaining institutional control, placing themselves in a winning position and showing that the Abertzale coalition is not capable of building sufficient majorities.
