The PSC would win the elections to the Parliament again and widen its margin against ERC, according to the latest barometer of the Center d'Estudis d'Opinió de la Generalitat (CEO), which predicts for the socialists a range of 39 to 45 seats, compared to the 33 they obtained in the Catalan elections of February 2021. The socialists thus consolidate themselves as the first political force in Catalonia, while the independence movement loses steam, especially Junts, which is left with a range of 19 to 24 deputies, compared to the 32 of the last regional ones. ERC, which now has 33 deputies, would obtain between 29 and 34.
Support for independence is not increasing either, according to the Generalitat survey. In a dichotomous question about independence, those against it represent 52% of those surveyed, while those in favor remain at 41%, one point less than in the previous barometer.
The survey also asks about the amnesty law and the results show that 60% of the sample is in favor of granting it while 31% are against it. ERC and Junts voters are the most in favor of the approval of this law, while only 49% of PSC voters support it and 41% are against it.
The survey was carried out between October 9 and November 7, which means that the barometer reflects the state of mind of Catalan citizens in the midst of negotiating the pacts for the investiture and the amnesty law. The agreement between PSOE and Junts was signed on November 9.
In the area of pro-independence parties, the one that suffers the greatest correction is Junts per Catalunya, which, in the best of cases, according to this estimate, is left with 24 deputies, that is, 8 less than in the 2021 elections. The lower band of the range remains at 19 representatives.
It is difficult to evaluate whether this setback is related to the pact reached with the PSOE or, on the contrary, it suffers this severe drop precisely because it had not been closed since the sample was closed on the 9th.
This estimate from the Catalan Institute of Public Opinion places ERC with 34 deputies, one more than the one it obtained in the February 2021 regional elections, one more seat. In the lower band of the range, it would fall four seats.
Also relevant in this sample is the position of the Popular Party, which barely changes its result compared to the previous poll despite having capitalized on the reaction against the PSOE agreements and after having led the failed investiture attempt. According to this barometer, the PP is left with the same estimate: 17 deputies on the high side of the range, 12 on the low.
Oriol Junqueras is once again the highest rated Catalan leader, with an average score of 4.9, after Aragonés fell from first to fourth place, now with 4.6 compared to 4.8 last July. The second best qualified politician is Ernest Urtasun, who breaks into the BOP for the first time.
Nogueras also debuts in the barometer with a score of 4.8, in third position. Albiach remains in fifth place with 4.6 and ties with the President of the Generalitat, despite the fact that he adds one tenth more than the previous BOP. It is followed by Illa, which has maintained 4.5 since July.
Carles Riera enters the classification, also for the first time with a 4.3 followed by Iceta, who maintains his stable 4.2, tied with Laia Estrada, in his first entry to the BOP. They are followed by Puigdemont, with the immutable 4 that he has treasured since the beginning of the year.
The worst rated leader becomes Carrizosa, with the same average score of 1.7 as in the last publication of the study, but this time surpassed by Ignacio Garriga, who adds one more point compared to July, and compared to the leader of Ciudadanos. The most important drop goes to Alejandro Fernández, who already lost two tenths compared to the beginning of the year, and now falls two more, to stand at 2.1 in the penultimate place.
The survey, as usual, asks about the position on independence, which is at a low level compared to the history of this survey with 41% of the sample. In fact, and for the first time in the entire series, when asked their position among four options - a region, an autonomous community, a federated state or an independent country - the independence option falls to second position below the option of an autonomous community.
Relations between Catalonia and the State become the main concern of Catalans in November, and stands out as the main interest of PP voters at 35%. They are followed by PSC supporters with 19%, and Junts supporters with 18%.
Concern about the functioning of the economy has remained in second place since the beginning of the year, followed by dissatisfaction with politics and unemployment and job insecurity.
Access to housing and citizen insecurity is positioned in fifth and sixth place, and surpasses health, which falls from fifth to seventh position, with 6% of the votes.
