What happens tonight in the Valencian Community is going to have an important weight in the electoral result of these general elections. The Valencian Community elects 33 deputies (5 for Castellón, 16 for Valencia and 12 for Alicante) and there are many questions that, in this geography, gain strength. Will the government agreements reached with Vox in the Generalitat Valenciana and in such important town halls as Elx or Torrent affect the PP for the benefit of the PSPV? Will the PP manage to approach or exceed the million votes it achieved in the general elections during five consecutive calls (from 1996 to 2011) and thus consolidate the victory of Alberto Nuñez Feijóo? Is the alliance of Compromís with Sumar going to help the Valencian project to improve its visibility in Congress despite the collapse, and disappearance in Valencia, of Podem?
These are just a few questions that will be answered tonight and that will define whether the change of cycle achieved by the right-wing on 28-M in the Valencian Community has continuity and is consolidated on this 23-J. A resounding victory for the PP, whose head of the list is Esteban González Pons, would confirm the strength of the popular in the Valencian Community after two legislatures in opposition and would aggravate the desert journey of the left, which lost all the major institutions a few weeks ago. The last one was the Valencia Provincial Council in a vote that left the socialist mayors touched (and upset) and that has left Mazón with almost absolute power, as happened in the times of Eduardo Zaplana and Francisco Camps.
Quite the contrary, if the PSPV and Compromís-Sumar proportionally improve the results of the past 28-M, the political combat will have another intensity in this Valencian geography in the coming weeks, although it would not serve to undo the path advanced by PP and Vox in the Valencian Community. All in all, tonight the results are going to have a great impact on the mood of the Valencian parties.
The PP has overturned in recent days in the Valencian Community. The party led by Feijóo knows exactly what is at stake. In the 2019 general elections, he obtained only 584,000 votes, compared to the 1,390,000 he obtained in 2011; 53.9% of the votes and the second best result in history in absolute terms. In the last regional elections (less than two months ago) the PP exceeded 880,000 votes because, among other factors, it managed to assume a large part of the Ciudadanos vote. Now, the majority of the 37,000 who still trusted the oranges (Cs does not appear in the general elections), have all the numbers to join the draw of the popular ones.
In the average of the polls, the PP stands at around 34% and taking into account that in the Valencian Community, in the general elections scenario (and even more so in a context of useful votes), the popular ones improve the figures of the regional ones, reaching 40% of the votes (that long-awaited million votes) is not an impossible challenge.
As this newspaper explained, the PSOE also behaves better in the general elections, where its most direct competitor -Compromís- falls. The Socialist list has options to improve the 708,142 votes that Ximo Puig achieved on 28-M; the best figure in some regional since 2007 for the brand of the fist and the rose.
This time Compromís once again has a partner with a supposed state pull – at least Sumar has had a leading role in debates and has options to compete with Vox for third place – which may allow the Valencian supporters to battle against that useful vote. The truth is that, after an agreement on the horn and with Podem not actively participating in the coalition, the first weeks of Compromís in opposition have not been easy.
Vox, which also behaves better on a state stage, runs the risk of seeing how part of its electorate is seduced to help Feijóo to have a more solid majority.
However, beyond the contribution to the state result of each formation in the three circumscriptions (Castellón, Valencia and Alicante) the 23-J will define the new Spanish political map. From then on, two things can happen (if there is no institutional blockade): that the new Valencian president, Carlos Mazón has an ally in La Moncloa -another thing will be the degree of compliance with the Valencian demands- or that the Socialists maintain power.
This second scenario would surely generate tensions between the two governments, as has always been seen that the political colors of the Government of Spain and the Valencian Council have not coincided. And that key, in a Valencian agenda packed to the brim with claims, grievances and pending projects, is also at stake this Sunday.