The political future of Spain will be settled at the end of May in the Valencian Community, the fourth most populous autonomous community in Spain (five million inhabitants), the largest autonomy governed by the PSOE and its allies, after the debacle Socialist in Andalusia. In Valencia the really existing relationship of forces will be settled. It will be an exciting and uncertain political battle.
The current turmoil on the left flank of the party system may have a special incidence in a community in which it is necessary to exceed 5% of the votes to obtain parliamentary representation. Adding is one thing and being able to add the majority in an autonomy in which left and right are tied. The degree of mobilization of the respective electorates will be decisive.
Although the focal points of the political debate remain obsessively installed inside the M-30 in Madrid, the main battle is going to be fought in the Valencian Community, with far-reaching consequences. Those who are in a position to form a majority in the Corts Valencianes after May 28 will surely be able to support the Government of Spain after the general elections in December.
In the Valencian Country, where the transition was turbulent, where virulent extreme right-wing terrorism came to exist, almost all the changes in the political cycle in Spain have been resolved. José María Aznar always maintained that the conquest of the Levant was key to ending the political and cultural hegemony of a left that morally benefits from its status as loser in the Civil War and victim of the dictatorship. A Madrid-Valencia axis based on a strong economic takeoff could break that hegemony.
Aznar worked hard to achieve this, but the Valencian turbo-economy derailed as a result of the 2008 crisis, exposing an impressive trail of corruption. But time passes and now comes a new test. Now it is the left that is being examined.
It could be said that the current government coalition in Spain began to be tested in Valencia in 2015, after twenty years of dominance by the Popular Party. The left, however, does not have an overwhelming majority. Everything in Valencia now rests on delicate balances. The PP lost because of corruption, but maintains solid electoral bases, especially in the province of Alicante.
Let's see the numbers. In the last regional elections, held in April 2019 (President Ximo Puig brought the regional elections forward by a month to make them coincide with the general ones), the left-wing bloc only managed to outperform the right-wing bloc by 42,123 votes. That same day, the three rights added together (PP, Ciudadanos and Vox) obtained 3,531 more votes than the left (PSOE, Compromís and UP) in the general polls.
More data. In the autonomous elections of 2919, the Popular Party was left 3,643 votes away from obtaining the last seat at stake in Alicante, which went to the PSPV-PSOE. In Valencia, the PP lost another seat to the Socialists by 1,397 ballots, and in Castellón, Compromís took a third seat from the PP by just 390 votes. The left ended up taking five seats ahead of the right. 52 to 47.
Adding is the question. Add the majority, without the 5% barrier becoming a deadly obstacle. To obtain representation in the Corts Valencianes it is necessary to exceed 5% of the votes cast at the regional level. For years, one of the objectives of the left has been to modify the Valencian electoral law to lower the bar to 3%. This modification, however, requires a reinforced majority, so that PSPV, Compromís and Unides Podem sought a pact with Ciudadanos and were about to achieve it.
When the agreement was almost closed, a telephone call from Madrid to Toni Cantó, former leader of Ciudadanos in the Valencian Community, stepped on the brake. That Valencian threshold of 5% is an organic component of the Spanish political system. It has served to prevent the appearance of a cantonal party in Alicante and for years it prevented the entry of the Valencià Nationalist Bloc into the Corts, until this formation moved away from Catalan nationalism, allied with a fraction of the post-communist left and managed to jump over of 5% with the Compromís brand and with the push of Mónica Oltra and Mireia Mollà, former militants of Esquerra Unida who stood out for their denunciation of corruption.
Four years later there are two novelties in the party dynamics. The Ciudadanos crisis and the turbulence in the Unidas Podemos space as a consequence of the step forward of Yolanda Díaz and the final presentation of the Sumar platform in Madrid, without the participation, for the moment, of Podemos in it.
Ciudadanos will not exceed 5% and it remains to be seen if all their votes will go to the Popular Party. Four years ago Ciudadanos obtained excellent results in the Valencian Community: 470,000 votes and 18 deputies. The PP will be the main beneficiary, but Ximo Puig tries to attract former voters of the orange party with a very presidential campaign and a civic support platform that includes former Cs militants.
Will Unides Podem overcome the 5% barrier? Four years ago they far exceeded it, thanks to the push of Podemos and Pablo Iglesias. The stagnation caused by the lack of agreement on the Sumar platform could leave UP below 5%, if now confusion, fatigue and demoralization spread among its voters.
The UP candidate for the presidency of the Generalitat Valenciana is Héctor Illueca, a Podemos militant, labor inspector, former high-ranking official of the Ministry of Labor, that is, a former collaborator of Yolanda Díaz. Illueca was not at the Magariños pavilion event last Sunday for not breaking his loyalty with the leading group of Podemos. He also did not want to break it Alejandra Jacinto, UP candidate for Madrid, who also risks being below 5%. This gives us an idea of the density of the situation. Hermeneutics are needed to be able to decipher it.
Sumar has presented itself to society as a brilliant project for the future, but it will not present itself as such in the next local and regional elections. That task remains in the hands of a sacrificed infantry, the left condemned to change its name every four years, which will try to defend the position while the top agrees or disagrees.
The speeches are beautiful but the battle is settled in the trenches of the 5%. The Valencian socialists attend the orchestral movements in Madrid, perplexed. They do not understand anything. A defeat of the left in Valencia due to lack of bellows would cause a substantial alteration of the Spanish political map.
Valencia, Valencia, Valencia, The conquest of Levante has been the obsession of Aznar for years, the best right-wing strategist since 1990. With Andalusia, Madrid and Valencia, the Popular Party would have victory in the general elections in December within its reach . Against Andalusia, Madrid and Valencia it would be very difficult to govern Spain, even if the PSOE could articulate a majority, more unstable than the current one. If Valencia changes hands, Spanish politics change.
The PP can add in Valencia. The left will have to work so that its splits and idealizations do not subtract.
