The political blockade in France may force the dissolution of the National Assembly

Emmanuel Macron and his party, Renaissance, have already begun preparations for new legislative elections, as published exclusively yesterday by Le Journal du Dimanche.

Thomas Osborne
Thomas Osborne
06 November 2022 Sunday 16:31
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The political blockade in France may force the dissolution of the National Assembly

Emmanuel Macron and his party, Renaissance, have already begun preparations for new legislative elections, as published exclusively yesterday by Le Journal du Dimanche. The Sunday newspaper assured that in the Elysee the idea is gaining ground that a dissolution of the National Assembly will be inevitable given the difficulties in governing, since the Macronist deputies lost the majority in the June elections and the radical left and the extreme right, very strong, they have created a locking pincer.

The information, which is supported by various sources, is plausible, although the government spokesman, Olivier Véran, was quick to deny that these plans exist, at least in the short term. "I think the French don't want it," he told France 3 channel. Véran recalled that the four motions of censure presented so far by the opposition have failed and that there is no alternative majority.

It cannot be ruled out that the leak is a test balloon, to create nerves and a way to pressure Republicans (LR, right) to help the Government pass laws. But the perspective of a dissolution of the Assembly has been handled by analysts since the results of the elections were known and it was seen how hard it was going to be to carry out the legislative initiatives. In fact, the Government has already had to resort four times, in just two weeks, to article 49-3 of the Constitution to be able to approve by decree, bypassing Parliament and the amendments, the State budgets and the Financing Law of the Social Security. This exceptional procedure revealed the precariousness of the Executive.

Still according to Le Journal du Dimanche , the Renaissance machinery is already being greased, with very detailed political, personnel and financial planning, to react very quickly when the president, making use of his prerogatives, announces the dissolution of the Chamber and new elections.

Calling the French back to the polls would pose a high risk for Macron and for the stability of the country. What happened in April 1997 does not bode well. Then, the conservative president, Jacques Chirac, dissolved the Assembly in order to have a looser majority, with more room for manoeuvre. The voters, however, gave victory to the left and forced a cohabitation between Chirac and the prime minister, the socialist Lionel Jospin.

Macron and his advisers are undoubtedly aware of the dangers of elections, but the president does not have the character to endure, until 2027, a situation of stagnation in which his reforms are slowed down or distorted. He could be tempted, then, to take on the challenge, to risk it all or nothing, to suggest to the citizens that they must choose between paralysis and chaos or a clear line, theirs.

One option is to wait, to give time to see if LR agrees to collaborate, to be constructive. Delaying the decision for a long time would have the disadvantage that the elections would be held in a more difficult economic situation than the current one, in the midst of a recession, with a far right and a radical left fully exploiting the springs of populism.