The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has lowered its GDP growth forecast for Spain in 2022 by 1.4 points to 4.1% and has raised the average inflation rate by 5 points, to project it to 8 ,1%.
This is stated in its semi-annual Economic Outlook report, published this Wednesday, which also anticipates growth of just 2.2% by 2023, with inflation that will remain relatively high although less strong, at 4.8%. on average
This body is more pessimistic than the Government, which expects a progression of gross domestic product (GDP) of 4.3% this year and 3.5% next. It also sees things worse when it comes to inflation than the European Commission, which in mid-May projected an average consumer price index in 2022 of 6.3% in Spain and 1.8% in 2023.
As for the debt, the report considers that it will decrease less than what the Government predicts and to levels still well above 98.3% of GDP in 2019, taking it from 118.6% in 2021 to 115.6% in 2022 and to 113.1% in 2023.
The downward correction of growth forecasts since the previous report of December 1 is general for almost all its members and particularly strong in the countries of continental Europe, which are among the most affected by the invasion of Ukraine.
Despite some corrections that indicate lower growth and higher inflation, the increase in Spanish GDP will be higher than that of other large developed countries such as the United States (2.5%), the United Kingdom (3.6%), Italy (2.5 %), France (2.4%) or Germany (1.9%). Even so, Spain is one of the countries furthest behind in the recovery of economic activity that it had at the end of 2019.
The OECD believes that high inflation and uncertainty will reduce household spending in Spain and that bottlenecks in the supply of semiconductors will also limit private investment and exports.
The report insists that fiscal measures to deal with the short-term effects of the energy shock on vulnerable households and businesses have to be selective and temporary. At the same time, he considers that a medium-term fiscal adjustment strategy must be applied to begin to gradually reduce the deficit and public debt.
