The new NATO Strategic Concept

In the new Strategic Concept (CE), adopted by the NATO summit held at the end of June in Madrid, Russia is considered, as the first major innovation, "a significant and direct threat" due to the "brutal aggression" against Ukraine .

Thomas Osborne
Thomas Osborne
01 September 2022 Thursday 18:45
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The new NATO Strategic Concept

In the new Strategic Concept (CE), adopted by the NATO summit held at the end of June in Madrid, Russia is considered, as the first major innovation, "a significant and direct threat" due to the "brutal aggression" against Ukraine . The previous EC of Lisbon (2010), on the contrary, declared in favor of "a true strategic partnership between NATO and Russia". With the first war in Ukraine (2014), cooperation between NATO and Russia was extinguished.

The second major innovation of the new EC has been the mention of China, absent from the previous one. It is considered "a challenge to our interests, security and values".

, Carter's adviser, stated that the worst possible scenario for the United States was an alliance between Russia and China. Half a century ago, with the visit to Mao in February 1972, Nixon launched an "almost alliance", in Kissinger's words, between the United States and China against the USSR. Today the "almost alliance" is between Russia and China against the United States.

With the successive enlargements of NATO, plus the opening of the doors to Ukraine and Georgia, together with the military operations of the Alliance against Serbia and Afghanistan, Russia was pushed into the arms of China. This, in turn, got closer to Russia as a reaction against the economic and technological war started by Trump against it, continued by Biden, who also tries to create a kind of Pacific NATO to contain China .

Added to the geostrategic considerations, on Putin's part, is the desire to avoid the subversive effect that a consolidated democracy in Ukraine would have for his autocratic regime.

The war in Ukraine makes Europe much more dependent on the US. For Washington, the highest priority is to stop the rise of China, and the war in Ukraine helps it involve Europe in this effort. So far, Europe, invoking its "strategic autonomy" and offering itself as a "moderating power", has resisted. According to Josep Borrell, "so that the European Union does not remain imprisoned in the conflict between the United States and China, it must act in its own way", alluding to Frank Sinatra's song My way.

Macron recently declared that "Russia cannot be humiliated". He understands that if Putin were cornered in Ukraine, a scenario could open up that would lead to the "end of history". And that without a modus vivendi with Russia, Europe's "strategic autonomy" is hardly affordable. That is why he and Scholz traveled to Kyiv and Moscow on the eve of the war, in an attempt to avoid it. Zelenski did not accept neutralization at the time, but a few weeks later he not only did, but stated that he had understood for a long time that Ukraine would not be admitted to NATO, Russia's essential demand. In other words, when he received the visit from Macron and Scholz, he already knew. Why didn't he tell his European visitors then, or directly to Putin?

The EC adds that NATO is "open to constructive interaction with China". Time will tell what remains of Europe's "strategic autonomy". China will be the test of the new.

The Financial Times published, in its May 31 editorial, a real lesson: “The brutal war in Ukraine should focus the minds of China and the West led by the United States. If diplomacy does not prevail, the Indo-Pacific could become as combustible as Ukraine today.”