The historian Antonio Adsuar maintains in his book Total Alicante, that "there were, are and will be two Alicantes, the one with "las palmeras", located to the south of the imaginary line that goes from Biar to Busot, which would encompass from the capital of the province to the region of Vega Baja, passing through Elx and Vinalopó, and that of "the mountains", to the north of that fictitious line, that is, the steep interior and the coastline of the Marinas Baixa and Alta.
There are historical, geographical and demographic readings that allow us to argue along these lines, and some of them have had and still have an influence on electoral behavior: the greater or lesser Valencianity of the population, the high weight of the non-autochthonous census in certain areas, the preponderance of of an economy linked to the countryside in the vega del Segura, to tourism and services in a good part of the coast, to the ups and downs of industry in the central and inland regions...
In any case, if something characterizes the province of Alicante it is the difficulty of analyzing it in the singular, because perhaps more than any other in Spain its current configuration results from a plurality, from a sum of very marked singularities.
In general terms, analysts tend to attribute to Alicante a greater tendency to vote nationally, even in municipal elections, but in a case like Sunday's, even if that were true, it does not help to predict what the behavior of that type of voter will be. : Will you stay at home due to a lack of interest in what is local? Or will he come mobilized by the idea that 28-M is an opportunity to punish -or defend- the central government?
The latter, capitalizing on the anger of the conservative sectors discontent with the Sánchez government, is what the leaders of the right seem to expect. Mazón attacks Puig via Madrid: the cut in the transfer, the low investment in the province, without the voice being raised with sufficient energy from Valencia, are his arguments. Alicante weighs heavily and the presence of Alberto Núñez Feijóo in Alicante on the last day of the campaign indicates this. Although he is surprised that support for the hospitality sector has been the reason chosen to prop up the campaign of the mayor of Alicante.
In fact, Luis Barcala has disconcerted his own party by proposing a passive campaign: he refused to attend the latest debate on local television and the interviews with newspapers such as Información or La Vanguardia, contrasting with the position of his regional leader, Carlos Mazón, and most of the municipal candidates, like María José Catalá in Valencia, willing to explain themselves and fight everywhere.
Barcala thinks that in the local debate, with a mandate that ends with two imputed councillors, he is running unnecessary risks, but there are those who believe in his party that on Sunday there will not be any votes left over, and he has missed a greater effort on his part to convince to the lazy He trusts everything to collect the ashes of Ciudadanos and prays that Vox stays just enough to ensure the baton of command, but not so much as to condition him too much.
Accompanying Feijóo and Barcala was Toni Pérez, mayor of Benidorm and president of the provincial PP, one of the personalities in whose pull the Alicante right-wing trusts (it is already said that he is their candidate to preside over the Provincial Council). One of the unknowns that will be resolved on Sunday is where the municipal vote will drag the regional vote and vice versa. They hope that the strength of Pérez in Benidorm, like that of Eduardo Dolón in Torrevieja, does not become overconfidence but rather a massive support for Mazón's candidacy, and they hope that the problems suffered in important places, such as Orihuela or Dénia, do not bill them.
The PSPV, on the other hand, trusts that mayors like Carlos González (Elx) -who was not the favorite of the apparatus, but it was considered risky to find a replacement for him)- Rubén Alfaro (Elda) -faced a PP that has exchanged candidates with Cs- or Toni Francés (Alcoi) resist the attacks of the right, and hopes to fight Ana Barceló in Alicante.
But the drama of the socialists is that, both in the regional and municipal ones, in key places like Alicante or Elx, not even an improvement in their results, which is not guaranteed, would be enough if it is not accompanied by a sufficient mobilization of the voters of the rest of the left formations.
Throughout his tenure, Ximo Puig has made an effort to compensate with his presence Alicante's detachment from the Council and the feeling of grievance towards Madrid, especially in Vega Baja, hit by the floods of 1919 and where educational policy and uncertainty that hangs over irrigation can attract a vote of punishment to the ballot box.
The investment announcement or the promise of a second ministry for the province, among other measures, seeks to add tenths at the last minute that allow it to pass that exam. But for Compromís to consolidate in those municipalities where its presence has allowed and may allow left-wing governments, and that the EU-Podem votes do not go to abstention, it is as vital for the PSPV as the active response of its own voters. Yolanda Díaz buried the hatchet in Alicante for a reason, because even she knows that the necessary votes may be in Alicante so that the purple ones do not disappear from the Corts and the third Botànic becomes a reality.
The alternative is Carlos Mazón, and the shadow that looms to his right. Oblivious to most local affairs, the Vox candidates have ceded all the prominence to the candidate for the Generalitat, the Valencian professor Carlos Flores. The extreme right has had time, yes, to present lists in some locations where they did not previously have them. They count on the fierce anti-Sanchismo that they perceive in their wasap groups not to be satisfied with exercising a useful vote and on Sunday not to vote for a man from the PP thinking that he is voting for Ayuso.
To question the present you have to know the past, but it depends on who is looking at it, placing it before or after. In Castelló, for Begoña Carrasco, mayor for the Popular Party, the past are the last eight years in which the Socialist Party has governed and in which "the city has lost light", with Amparo Marco as mayoress. For her, the turning point is in 2015, when she arrived at the consistory and she found three sentences against the urban planning approach of the city that Alberto Fabra had governed at that time. For Eduardo del Pozo, candidate for Ciudadanos -who entered as the third force in 2015 and remained in 2019-, the past were "social cuts and tax increases with the PP".
The municipal elections of May 2011 were the last with an absolute majority for the PP in Castelló. At that time, Fabra, later president of the Generalitat Valenciana, led, who took more than 14,000 votes apart from the PSPV and obtained 15 councilors, an absolute majority. In 2015 the current that generated governments of change in cities like Valencia also spread to the capital of La Plana: the PP won again, but Marco managed to seize the leadership after an agreement with Compromís and the vote in favor of Castelló in Movement.
In 2019 Marco took first place and his ten councilors allowed him to continue governing, now with the support of Compromís and Unides Podem, in the style of the Botànic, a task that he hopes to revalidate this Sunday. PP and PSPV are the two majority forces in the city and those that are fighting for the leadership next Sunday, as a reflection of the situation that can occur in the autonomous communities: either Botànic or return of the PP.
