The long shadow of 1989

The fall of the Wall lit up the reunion with history after the exceptional stage of the cold war and laid the seed for the refoundation of the European project, as so many times throughout history, from the Great Company of Minister Sully de Enrique de Navarra to the founding fathers of the European Union.

Thomas Osborne
Thomas Osborne
04 November 2022 Friday 18:39
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The long shadow of 1989

The fall of the Wall lit up the reunion with history after the exceptional stage of the cold war and laid the seed for the refoundation of the European project, as so many times throughout history, from the Great Company of Minister Sully de Enrique de Navarra to the founding fathers of the European Union. Projects that have always been launched after great human and economic disasters derived from war.

In 1989, we Europeans found ourselves face to face with the complex political geography and the challenge of its socioeconomic cohesion after more than 40 years living back to back and confronted. Immersed in a century of profound technological transformations and in a world economy where competition for technological leadership entails control over critical raw materials and competition in the energy and digital transition.

We are 5.7% of the world population, 18.6% of global GDP and 8% of emissions. And the forecasts are not upward. We are in a different world from that of the founding fathers but, more than ever, with the same need for unity. We have great challenges before us, well explained by the community institutions, that we must overcome if we want to preserve our well-being and security. Mainly, the techno-industrial strength accompanied by strategic autonomy. The shadow of the fall of the Wall and Tiananmen reaches our days with virulence in the case of Europe, and makes China visible as the second world power, both for its leadership vocation in the energy and digital transition, and for its control in matters critical premiums.

For Europe, the invasion of Ukraine is not only a humanitarian disaster, it is also a rude awakening to geopolitics if it wants to maintain its strategic sovereignty in a complex world where diverse internal geopolitical interests coexist. Where do we start from? On December 25, 1991, the Soviet Union was shelved and Sweden and Finland entered the European Union. On December 4, 1994, the Budapest Memorandum was signed transferring to Russia all the nuclear capacity located in Ukraine and guaranteeing its territorial integrity and sovereignty. The same year Russia joins the Association for Peace and signs cooperation agreements with NATO. Ten years later we are witnessing the gradual accession of the countries of the former Warsaw Pact to the European Union and the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, which began the pilgrimage to the common European home. Both events with a common goal: the desire to be like us, Westerners.

In 2007, however, there was a turning point. Putin staged at the Munich security conference his goal of regaining the status of a power based on its nuclear capacity and its strength in raw materials. In 2014, three relevant events took place: the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU, Russia intervened militarily to recover Crimea, and the constitution agreement of the Eurasian union led by Russia was signed, similar to the European community. In 15 years, hope has been transformed into a geopolitical challenge for the European Union through a sensitive territory like Ukraine, as Brzezinski already analyzed in the 1990s. We are at a crossroads and the 2024 elections are especially important because its results will depend on whether we are capable of building strategic autonomy and seeking the different east-west and north-south balances.

The breakdown of the energy marriage with Russia, the risks of stagflation, the new policy marked by China and the updating of Atlantic solidarity are some data that push us to have the necessary geopolitical strength, and this goes through energy, technological and defending. Only then will we have economic sovereignty. The world of yesterday is disappearing and the world of tomorrow is being born with suffering. Our challenge is to be actors of geopolitical power through a commitment to technological and industrial investment and the construction of an Iberian economic community with Portugal open to France.