The buzz about the possibility of a reform of the electoral law that lowers the electoral bar to 3% (now it is at 5%) before the dissolution of Les Corts Valencianes has been heard for weeks in the corridors of the autonomous Parliament. However, with barely two plenary sessions before the end of the session (there is an ordinary plenary session next week that already has an agenda established and another 'broom' plenary session for the end of March), there is no armed majority to achieve the 66 deputies needed.
The reform of the Valencian Electoral Law requires a qualified majority of two thirds (66 of the 99 deputies). To do this, to the votes of the three Botànic groups (52) we would have to add the 13 of Ciudadanos and still one more would be missing. This would have to come from one of the non-attached: five parliamentarians who abandoned, precisely, the discipline of Cs -some are already even candidates for mayor's office on the part of the PP-; and a former Vox deputy.
At the Botànic they even distrust that despite the fact that Ciudadanos claims to have the group united around this issue, this would come to be the case at the crucial moment of the vote. Also, they remember, the motion of no confidence in Murcia was tied. "Peris does not control his group", they point out from the ranks of the Botànic.
Even so, the supporters of the electoral reduction (PSPV, Compromís, Unides Podem and the Cs itself) would hold the majority that they would have to look for in one of the defectors. At the beginning of the legislature, when Cs had its 18 seats, the sum was possible, but at the last moment, its then leader Toni Cantó, changed his mind and blocked the reform.
Given this situation, from the Palau de la Generalitat it was stressed that there is not "a majority" to promote a reform. Also in the PSPV parliamentary group they admitted that it is "very difficult" and a "carambola" would have to be achieved, so they see it as risky that a vote could be considered.
In Compromís they indicated that those 66 deputies would have to be reached and that only if one of those who were supposed to vote stayed at home, the initiative would no longer go ahead. A proposal that would also have to be placed in the last plenary session of the legislature, which would convey the feeling that the rules of the game are being changed in the final stretch of the game.
In addition, another factor is added; and it is that it would be very ridiculous for the parties of the left to propose a vote and lose it because they did not know how to guarantee the votes beforehand.
"Saving soldier Puig is not with us because this is a maneuver that does not think about the people, only about the seats, and we are not going to play this because it only shows despair and hopelessness in the face of the next elections," denounced yesterday the deputy of the Fr Alfredo Castello.
This being the case, there is no one who is betting that the operation can be carried out. "I hope he deceives me, because it is not nonsense," explained one of the deputies who has been in the negotiation to see if it was feasible to carry out the reform.
And it is that he is right. With the current system, parties need around 135,000 votes to gain representation. Ciudadanos will not come close to that figure, but the reduction could make some voters maintain their confidence in the orange brand and not look for other alternatives in the conservative bloc. On the other hand, the Botànic would have a safety net and its three legs would have its presence in Les Corts assured - except for the Unides Podem debacle -, which would give it more numbers to maintain a left-wing majority.
For this reason, it is understood that the PP has been attentive to the movements in Parliament for weeks, although they assure that the operation is so complicated that it does not have a plan B.
