We are heading towards a soft landing for the global economy, as commented by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the presentation of its forecast report this Tuesday. From 3.5% growth in 2022 it will go to 3% this year and 2.9% next year.
The eurozone, hit by the war in Ukraine, rising rates and inflation, is among the economic blocs that will suffer the most. It will grow seven tenths this year, almost three times less than the previous year. The recession of the German locomotive weighs in particular, with a decline of 0.5%. Also notable is the collapse of the United Kingdom, which will go from 4.1% to 0.5% this year.
The case of Spain is against the trend. The IMF confirmed its growth forecast for this year of 2.5%. It is true that the report does not even go into parameters such as per capita income or the speed of recovery from the pandemic. But the facts, as sources from the Ministry of Economy recall, confirm the data forecast for this year, which is above the Government's forecasts (2.1%) and represents more than triple the estimated growth for the euro zone. Likewise, forecasts point to a slowdown in inflation in Spain in 2023, which will moderate to 3.5% this year, although then rebound to 3.9% next year.
Among the bad news, the IMF has revised downwards the estimate for 2024, when it projects that GDP will expand by 1.7%, three tenths less than initially calculated. According to this organization, Spain may suffer a certain slowdown in the rebound in tourism that was experienced in 2022 and 2023 and that offset a slowdown in the manufacturing sectors that are most sensitive to interest rates.
As one might imagine, the outbreak of war in the Middle East is worrying. The Fund says it is too early to measure the impact of a military escalation, but offered the following calculation: for every 10% increase in the price of oil, there is a 0.15% cut in GDP growth. following year and a 0.4% rise in inflation.
In this sense, the IMF has said that "central banks still have work to do and should avoid relaxing rates prematurely." According to the calculations of this institution, inflation will not return to normal before 2025. The IMF believes that price increases in the countries of the single currency will go from an average of 5.6% this year to 3.3% next year. coming, still above the ECB's target of 2%. "It is necessary to strengthen monetary policy to contain expectations that inflation will continue to rise," they explained.
Much concern comes from China. Although Beijing will close this year at 5%, next year it will fall to 4.2%. "There are concerns about its real estate sector. Every time China slows its growth by 1%, the rest of the world can slow by 0.3%. We have a more pessimistic scenario in which a drop in China's wealth of 1.6 % could mean a cut for the rest of the economies of 0.6%.
The IMF also made a final general observation. In recent years, since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 and particularly since 2013, global economies have seen their potential growth rate reduce, especially when compared to previous averages. For two reasons: one is that fiscal space has been reduced, with strong public debt. And second, the increase in natural disasters has also weakened the recovery of several sectors, hit by added and unpredictable costs.
