The great fortunes also see economic clouds in 2023

The great Spanish fortunes are not alien to the current times and perceive difficulties in the economy as a whole.

Thomas Osborne
Thomas Osborne
26 December 2022 Monday 23:43
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The great fortunes also see economic clouds in 2023

The great Spanish fortunes are not alien to the current times and perceive difficulties in the economy as a whole. The way to listen to their sentiment is through the sicavs, the collective investment vehicles with which they move part of the capital, whose quarterly reports must be registered with the CNMV. In those recently presented, they offer clues and forecasts on the state of the economy, especially in the euro zone, and diagnose further rises in interest rates and dark clouds in areas such as consumption.

The three largest sicavs registered in Spain are Morinvest, Torrenova and Gesprisa. The first is that of Alicia Koplowitz; the second, that of Juan Abelló, and the third, that of Alberto Palatchi, former owner of Pronovias. There is also Bellver, from the March family, or Allocation, from the del Pino family, the main shareholders of Ferrovial.

Morinvest indicates in its latest report that "the macroeconomic context has been deteriorating" due to "exogenous factors" that have triggered "an escalation of prices much higher than expected". The consequence has been “strong interest rate hikes” by central banks, he says.

Koplowitz's sicav forecasts a “moderate recession” for the euro zone and is concerned about core inflation, which excludes energy and food, and which is reaching its record since the euro existed. She also believes that the United States will suffer a deterioration in the housing market that will affect the rest of the economy.

The sicav of businessman Juan Abelló believes that "interest rates and inflation will remain at high levels for longer." In the euro zone, they will last until the end of 2023. The energy crisis, he says, has had a "very notable impact" on the purchasing power of families, which causes a "drop in confidence" and a "contraction in the consumption".

There is a message about the feared risk premium in the coming months: "It is likely that the peripheral debt will remain high." The risk level of the European economies is higher than that of the North American, he adds.

Gesprisa, the result of the merger of two Alberto Palatchi sicavs, has seen a "notable deterioration in market sentiment" since September and emphasizes the "uncertainty" and "volatility" caused by the rise in interest rates .

Two other sicavs, Allocation and Chart Inversiones, from the Del Pino family, say that inflation, the “main economic problem”, is already showing “clearly second-round effects”. For this reason, the "turn" of the central banks to "much more restrictive monetary policies" is reaffirmed. Corporate results have been “slightly better than expected” in the first part of 2022, but “there is a high risk of corrections in earnings in the last part of this year and in 2023” because “economic growth is slowing”, point.

Bellver, the March family sicav, does not make great assessments of the current economic situation and sticks to its investment strategy. Her motto is "caution in exposure to stock markets pending an adjustment in expectations of growth in earnings per share that more accurately reflects the economic slowdown as a result of interest rate rises and the rise in the cost of living ”.

Two other notable sicavs are Arbarin and Swift Inversiones. The first says that we are now in “a more aggressive narrative on monetary policy” that will not be contained until inflation is “under control”. The second concludes that "the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to represent a high risk for the European economy."