For a football club of the greats, of those that accumulate successes, "change of cycle" is a cursed phrase. When you start to hear that the team is no longer what it used to be, bad... Even if it adds up acceptable results. That if such a player no longer performs as before, that if disputes arise in the locker room, that if the coach does not hit the key... Sometimes it is possible to conjure up the bad streak and it even resurfaces with more impetus, silencing the doomsayers ; others the beginning of the decline is confirmed. Something similar happens with governments. Pedro Sánchez, about to complete four years as president, is at that point where the opposition is licking their lips at the change of cycle. The PP works with the mental framework that this is running out and some already see themselves as ministers. Meanwhile, in Moncloa, convinced that we are not so bad, they trust in the resistance of their president and his ability to come back.
It is true that the team plays disorderly and gives too much to the fluke of power. He is advancing in fits and starts and seems exhausted to face the final stretch of the legislature. The change of government almost a year ago has not had the revitalizing effect that the president intended. Sánchez has decided to resort to embarrassing passages from the PP's past to erode Alberto Núñez Feijóo. But it is a tactic that makes the president appear like a misunderstood leader. The PP has changed its leadership and, whether or not it is true, it offers its voters a different proposal than the one that once committed the outrages that Sánchez now blames him for, so that his broadsides sound like excuses for poor payers. Moreover, every time the president recalls the sewers of the State that the PP caused, the effect on Feijóo is debatable and, instead, the Catalan independence movement is nourished by the discourse of the irretrievable Spain from which it is urgent to get rid of as soon as possible.
It is not that Sánchez has plummeted in the polls. The PSOE remains and shows little wear. But the scenario has changed. Feijóo, without doing anything remarkable yet, has recovered, according to the CIS, votes from the right, from abstentionism and even some socialists.
The clashes within the governing coalition have been going on since the first day and there are no signs that it will break up, but now it seems that each party has grown tired of arguing with the other and they prefer to agree discrepancies rather than seek synthesis. Something similar happens with parliamentary allies. But there are dozens of rules to approve in Congress to comply with the European commitments that allow recovery funds to be received. Another Budget is yet to be approved. And variable geometry does not exist. One thing is that the PP agrees to agree to renew the judicial leadership, blocked in an abnormal way, or that it favors laws for convenience such as the audiovisual one, or to show off a sense of state, such as that of the CNI, and another very different is that Feijóo is going to support Sánchez.
The Government has approved 140 regulations in Congress and has not lost any relevant vote. But he will have to return to most of the investiture, which revolves around ERC. Added to the blockade of the dialogue table is the case of espionage. Pere Aragonès asks for the declassification of the CNI documents – which Sánchez does not have on the table unless a judge requests it – and a commitment that it will not happen again. In addition, trials of ERC leaders such as Josep Maria Jové and Lluís Salvadó are approaching, which will further strain relations.
Given this panorama, the president may be tempted to let himself be rocked by the siren songs of the international scene, where his merits are applauded, as was seen in Davos. Opportunities to enjoy this recognition will not be lacking with the NATO summit and the Spanish presidency of the EU. Winning the Champions is a success. But to continue disputing that competition one cannot forget to do well in the League and what is worrying for Sánchez are the signs of demobilization of the left-wing electorate, his and UP's. Is there a cycle change? The season is yet to be decided.
