This Monday, the presidents of China and the United States, Xi Jinping and Joe Biden respectively, will hold an important face-to-face meeting in Bali (Indonesia) in the run-up to the G-20 summit. It will be the first in-person meeting between the two since the American arrived at the White House in January 2021 (they have already seen each other in the past when they were both vice presidents). Since then, the leaders have held up to five telephone or videoconference talks, in which they have not been able to straighten out a bilateral relationship that is at its lowest point in decades.
Xi arrives at the appointment after renewing his position for a third term and having recovered his international agenda after the stoppage of the pandemic. For his part, Biden comes reinforced after avoiding a debacle for the Democrats in the mid-term elections, where they have been able to avoid the Republican “red tide”. Their meeting is not expected to produce great results, but it is expected to serve to expose their mutual red lines and keep communication open on matters of regional and global interest. These are some of the main topics that will be addressed during their long-awaited meeting.
Undoubtedly, the issue that will capitalize on the meeting is the contentious situation in Taiwan. Beijing considers this self-governed island, where nationalist troops took refuge in 1949 after their defeat by Mao Zedong's communists, as an inalienable part of its territory. His government assures that it prefers to achieve it by peaceful means, but it does not renounce the use of force to achieve it.
Since China and the US established diplomatic relations in 1979, Washington has maintained the so-called "strategic ambiguity", avoiding clarifying whether it would help Taiwan - with which it maintains warm informal ties and sells military equipment - in the event of an invasion. However, already as president, Biden has declared on at least three occasions that his troops could intervene directly in the event of a war, words later nuanced from the White House but which have provoked bitter complaints from Chinese leaders. “Those who play with fire will end up getting burned,” Xi warned Biden in their past conversations.
The tension in the region escalated even more this summer with the visit to the island of the president of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi. China reacted furiously to what they consider "a political provocation" with the largest military maneuvers in history in the area and the suspension of cooperation with Washington on key issues such as climate change. “Taiwan's doctrine has not changed at all from the beginning. So I'm sure we'll talk about Taiwan," Biden confirmed before embarking on his Asian tour these days.
Since Russia began the invasion of Ukraine, China has maintained a neutrality that is interpreted in the West as leaning towards Moscow. Beijing has not condemned the offensive and blames NATO and the US for its moves in Europe and for not taking Russian "legitimate security concerns" into account. Even so, Beijing has refrained from providing military aid or violating the Western sanctions imposed against its neighbor, avoiding that they too be subject to punishment.
Washington has repeatedly criticized Beijing for not strongly opposing Russian aggression, calling on it to side with it and use its influence over Moscow to end the war.
Nothing suggests that Beijing is going to give in to pressure, although in recent times it has shown its discontent with the development of the conflict. In September, during a summit in Uzbekistan, Russian President Vladimir Putin himself acknowledged the existence of "questions and concerns" on the Chinese side. And last week, Xi agreed with Foreign Minister Olaf Scholz, visiting Beijing, that "nuclear threats are irresponsible and incendiary," referring to messages from the Kremlin.
The barrage of North Korean missile launches in recent weeks and the threat of a new atomic test will be another of the topics that dominate the day. This Saturday, the adviser to the US president on National Security, Jake Sullivan, already announced that Biden plans to ask Xi for a "constructive role" to contain Pyongyang's actions, which they consider "a threat" to the US and peace. and stability throughout the region.
“If North Korea continues down this path, it will simply mean an increased US military and security presence in the region. China has an interest in playing a constructive role in containing North Korea's worst tendencies. Whether they decide to do it or not is up to them," the adviser said.
China is North Korea's main ally and largest trading partner. Still, it is unclear how far he can influence Kim Jong Un's regime or whether he is interested in doing so at a time of rising tension as Washington tightens ties with regional allies South Korea and Japan.
Trade war and semiconductor issues are also likely to come up on the negotiating table. Xi could ask his counterpart to remove tariffs that Donald Trump once imposed on numerous Chinese products - and which he has maintained - or an end to policies aimed at curbing Chinese technological advance.
A few months ago, the Biden Administration banned firms such as Nvidia and AMD from selling their next-generation artificial intelligence chips to Chinese companies. And in October, it announced that it was prohibiting the sale of some semiconductors or tools for their manufacture to companies or citizens of the Asian giant in order to limit the advancement of Chinese capabilities in the sectors of advanced technology (supercomputers, for example) or Defense, in which that Washington still retains some advantage.
The ban "seriously violates trade agreements and harms Beijing's legitimate interests" recently criticized Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who also asked Washington to "stop creating new obstacles." Still, it doesn't look like the US is going to change course, forcing Beijing to make huge investments and efforts to catch up in this highly specialized field.
From Washington, there are recurring criticisms of China for the violation of human rights in the Xinjiang region, home to the Uyghur Muslim minority, and Tibet or the repression registered in Hong Kong, where the political opposition has been silenced and is in prison or exile. Beijing disdains these comments on what it qualifies as "internal affairs" and focuses on the shame of the American country, such as racism, mass shootings or the attack on the Capitol.
For now, it is not known if at some point in the meeting they will touch on any of these issues or choose to leave them aside to focus on those mentioned above or other issues of common interest such as the fight against climate change or the management of the coronavirus pandemic. coronavirus.
