In the last seven years, Brexit has been a drama – some say an unmitigated tragedy – with dystopian moments and touches of science fiction, the (political) violence of a western or a Chicago gangster movie, and Boris Johnson in the role of Al Capone. But now the protagonists, the United Kingdom and the European Union, want to recycle it into a romantic comedy, with a final wedding despite the fights, all happy and eating partridges.
This new film is entitled The Windsor Agreement, and has been released today on screens in Great Britain and throughout the EU after a meeting in London between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to resolve the last quarrels and seal it all with a kiss, like in Notting Hill or Four Weddings and a Funeral. Even, to give everything more solemnity and pomp, the European diplomat had tea with King Carlos III in his castle.
The Brexit story so far is effectively one of four weddings, all of which ended badly. Cameron went to the altar believing that the bride would say yes (to her stay in the EU), and she said no; Theresa May tried to consummate the marriage in multiple ways, but she was unsuccessful; Johnson cuckolded everyone (he promised unionists there would be no internal border, and launched a bill to break the agreements he himself had signed), and it ended badly; and Liz Truss was following the same line as her predecessor, but she didn't even have time to eat the wedding cake, she went crazy and after 44 days she was sent to the madhouse by the financial markets.
Sunak hopes to change the script, and that his with Brexit is not a funeral but the final marriage, the beginning of an era in relations with the EU, in which, with commercial and political tensions gone, there is greater cooperation in defense against Putin, the UK is admitted to the Horizon program for scientific research, and both sides truly behave as friends and allies in a hostile world.
Sunak defines himself as a unionist, British and Brexiter, and from the beginning he campaigned for the exit of Europe. But as soon as he arrived at Downing Street, he adopted a much more conciliatory tone with Brussels and sought to build bridges to resolve the conflicts created by his predecessors, who had seen political capital in confronting and challenging the EU. He does not. As the banker and technocrat that he is, it was clear to him that, in the midst of the economic crisis and the cost of living, Brexit was a very heavy burden on growth (it is estimated that it has cost four points of GDP), on tax collection (the Treasury has stopped collecting 150,000 million euros), productivity (the lowest in 250 years), investment and trade. A solution was needed, and he believes he has found it.
The technical problems caused by the existence of a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of Great Britain have been resolved by establishing a green lane for products destined for the province, and another red lane (with more controls and customs declarations) for those destined for to the Republic and the rest of the EU. The British government will decide the VAT and the level of state aid. On the other hand, more complex and obtuse are the questions that refer to jurisdiction and sovereignty, in which Brussels has made concessions that it denied to all of Sunak's predecessors.
The Stormont Assembly will have a say in the application of community regulations to the province, and the Northern Irish courts will be the first instance when it comes to adjudicating commercial disputes. But the European Court of Justice will remain the ultimate arbiter as defender of the single market, a concept that has so far been rejected by unionists and die-hard Eurosceptics in the House of Commons.
Some are likely to continue to do so, with the DUP (Ulster Unionist Party) not enthusiastically approving the marriage but initially staying quiet, waiting to read the fine print of the deal and whether or not their lawyers will judge it as a waiver. of sovereignty. But even so, Sunak has thrown himself into the pool from the highest diving board, and that is what God wants. Overall, he doesn't have much to lose either, twenty points behind Labor in the polls, currently the favorite to win the elections at the end of next year, even with an absolute majority.
The British Prime Minister, in a desperate situation (10% inflation, strikes in the public sector...), has considered that his best option is to act as a statesman, solve the problems that his predecessors ran into or even created, and stand up to those who disagree. Selling the compromise as very good for Great Britain (the EU is willing to help it), a pragmatic solution that will have the support of the majority of the House of Commons (before which it will appear this afternoon to give details of the plan ). And from there, that Johnson opposes it if he wants to destabilize his leadership, and that the most virulent Euroscetics try to organize a rebellion. See what happens.
The reception offered to Von der Leyen by King Charles III has created a great deal of dust, because the monarch is not supposed to do politics, and in Great Britain there is nothing more political than Brexit. The eurosceptics and unionists of the DUP did not like it, because it seems that it is putting the official seal on the Windsor Agreement, with a very prepared staging, worthy of an Oscar. The official explanation is that it was Palacio's idea, without any Downng Street paper, and a mere gesture of courtesy, to talk about other things.
The movie didn't end with today's kiss. Now it remains to be seen if someone raises their hand in church and says they have an objection to the marriage. Or if, on the contrary, the DUP signed up
