Is it the economy that decides the elections? The last to know the answer has been President Joe Biden, worn down by inflation that has weighed almost as much as the threat to democracy posed by a Republican Party given over to Trump's civil coup.
In Spain, the rise of the PP owes much to its victories in Madrid and Andalusia, as well as to the replacement of Pablo Casado by Alberto Núñez Feijóo at the head of the party. But the evolution of the personal economic situation of the citizens also seems to contribute to the electoral advance of the popular (the data is from the CIS).
Of course, it is no secret that the general situation of the economy registers a pessimistic assessment among citizens. But that negative vision did not start the day before yesterday. The arrival of covid19, in March 2020, triggered negative perceptions from just over 40% of Spaniards to scratching 80% in September of that same year and touching the ceiling of 90% in the spring of 2021. hence, negative opinions about the state of the economy fell by more than 20 points (to just over 60%), while positive opinions reached one in four citizens.
However, optimism ended last February, after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and its impact on prices. And the negative ratings have grown 10 points since then, to be above 70% of citizens, while the positive ones have fallen below 20%.
But what happens with the perceptions about the personal economic situation? How have they evolved and what is their electoral impact? The figures are misleading, since they register an inverse correlation to the general one: more than 60% of those consulted declare themselves satisfied with their personal economic situation, compared to just over 25% who describe it as bad or very bad.
On the other hand, the evolution of recent years has been very marked by the pandemic. When it broke out, more than 70% of Spaniards expressed a positive assessment of their personal finances. But, after the summer of hope, the fall of 2020 reduced the rate of citizens satisfied with their domestic economy to 55% and placed the rate of those who judged their personal situation as bad or very bad above 20%. And this correlation was maintained until the summer of 2021, when citizens began to glimpse the end of the tunnel and the rate of positive perceptions with the personal economy returned to above 60%.
Of course, in parallel, and as of last autumn, the percentage of citizens who judged their personal situation to be bad or very bad began to grow, until it exceeded 25% in June this year. And the electoral translation of those perceptions? It is not easy to establish it, but some coincidences lead us to think of an indirect electoral impact. Or, at least, they suggest that the different groups of voters transfer to their particular sphere the vision (euphoric or apocalyptic) about the economy that the leaders of the parties they support distill.
For example, after the victory of Díaz Ayuso in Madrid, in May 2021, the CIS reflected a tie between the Socialists and the PP and a simultaneous drop below 60% of the positive perceptions of the domestic economy, while the negative ones were close to 25 %. Likewise, the popular ones achieved their best record in voting intention last July (almost four points ahead of the PSOE), while negative opinions about the personal economy rose to 26%, the highest rate since 2014. Without a doubt , citizens also vote with their pockets.
