Winning the World Cup in Qatar can have a double prize. On the one hand, the team that achieves it will rise to the throne of soccer for the next four years and will sew another star on its shirt. On the other, the country could avoid for a year the possible economic recession that many authorities predict in the face of the complex world scenario: the winner would increase the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by at least 0.25 percentage points in the two subsequent quarters. to raise the glass
This is the conclusion of the study A Kick for the GDP: The Effect of Winning the FIFA World Cup by postdoctoral researcher Marco Mello, from the School of Economics at the University of Surrey, in Guildford, England.
The paper uses OECD data from 1961 to examine whether winning the FIFA World Cup increases GDP growth. For the analysis, the research compares the growth or decline of GDP, of exports and imports, and of private and public consumption with the scenarios that would have occurred if the trophy had not been won through a statistical calculation.
The result is clear: during the two subsequent quarters, the winning country's GDP grows 0.25 points, driven by higher export growth. This is due, according to the research, to "a greater attractiveness enjoyed by national products and services in the global market after the victory of a major sporting event." One of the “most surprising” things, as the study points out, is that this effect does not seem to have a direct correlation with consumption or capital accumulation.
On the other hand, and despite the investment required, the study does not observe significant effects on GDP growth for the host country.
By adding two consecutive quarters of growth, the winner could avoid a so-called technical recession, which occurs when the variation in GDP is negative for at least two consecutive quarters compared to the same period of the previous year.
Brussels foresees a sharp collapse in growth in Spain and a European recession this winter. The economic effects of the war in Ukraine and the Kremlin's energy war against Europe are beginning to take their toll and the EU predicts that in this last quarter of the year "the euro zone, as well as the majority of member states, will go into recession."
The economic services of the European Commission calculate that growth in the countries of the euro zone will go from the 3.2% expected for this 2022 -which is higher than initially expected- to 0.3% in 2023. The collapse is even stronger in the case of Spain, which will close this year with a GDP growth of 4.5%.
