The PP lost the last municipal elections, those of 2019, by seven points, 1,600,000 votes and 2,000 councilors less than the PSOE, which anticipated the victory of Pedro Sánchez a few months later in the general elections. Under normal conditions –and even more so when both the PSOE and the PP have faced Sunday's elections as one of the primaries to come–, winning these elections would be the goal of any party. The PP can achieve it. His polls take it for granted, and the CIS, more negative for Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party, leaves him two points behind the PSOE. The same thing happens in the autonomous communities. The PP sees itself as the winner in territories such as the Valencian Community or Aragon, as well as in Cantabria or La Rioja, which are not currently governed by the popular ones. But the idea has already taken hold that it is not about winning, but about governing, and Pedro Sánchez has made the flag of that, who always counts, when counting votes, with his own and those of his partners, of the block.
It is there where the bar is set very high for the president of the PP, because he himself has raised many expectations and has spread the feeling that a political turnaround is possible and that the PP can govern the City Council after Sunday. Valencia and the Generalitat Valenciana, or Aragon, without ruling out Castilla-La Mancha, although in this case it would still be losing.
The victory that the president of the Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, will undoubtedly obtain, which according to all surveys, including those of the CIS, place her on the verge of an absolute majority, can be lowered in what it means if she finally has to depend of Vox for their election, even if they do not form a coalition government with them.
All these expectations, fueled by the PP itself, and reinterpreted by the PSOE as a bar that Alberto Núñez Feijóo must overcome if he wants to reach Moncloa, can lead to the paradox that Feijóo, winning the elections, seems to lose them, and Sánchez, who can lose them, and reduce his territorial power, appear to be the winner if he maintains crown jewels like Valencia or Aragón.
The PP designed a campaign for Feijóo to show that Sanchismo can be defeated, that repeating the government is not inevitable and that Pablo Iglesias's prediction that the PP would not return to Moncloa can be averted.
Sunday may be the first step, or not, as Rajoy would say, for what may happen in the generals. Feijóo has had two assets in the campaign that if they have not benefited him, have harmed the PSOE, his alliance with Bildu after learning of the presence of former ETA members, and the alleged vote buying. The influence will be seen, but it is clear that Sunday will mark the path of what will happen in December, beyond those who govern municipalities and communities.