The CIS has surrendered to the evidence. The visible rise of the PP that all the polls had been collecting has finally found an echo in the studies of the public institute, which in its July barometer places the popular two points ahead of the PSOE. Feijóo would reap more than 30% of the ballots today, while the Socialists would repeat their 2019 result: 28% of the votes.
However, it is not all bad news for the left. United We Can would improve its forecast of the previous barometer by almost four points and now it would reap more than 13% of the votes, half a point more than in the elections almost three years ago. For its part, the extreme right of Vox would nurture the rise of the PP and would fall to 12%, three points below its 2019 result. Finally, Ciudadanos would confirm its irreversible agony and drop to 1.7% of the vote, five points less than your current count.
The CIS prognosis is based, however, on a declared vote intention that for the first time gives a clear advantage to the PP, something that did not occur in previous studies. Today, the popular have a direct vote of 24.9%, compared to 21.1% of the PSOE