It may be because in a country with 33 million hungry people after one of the deadliest pandemics in the world, things couldn't get much worse. But three weeks before the world-famous carnival - which returns to normal for the first time since 2019 - a bit of optimism is beginning to be felt in Brazil.
In the coverage of theatrical crowds, the assault on the democratic headquarters of Brasilia is already giving way to samba schools and more authentically Brazilian costumes than the hackneyed green and yellow Bolsonaro uniform. The question is whether the new president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, will know how to take advantage of this, perhaps ephemeral, moment of hope.
The change of mood was palpable in Urca, a charming district on the coast of the elegant south zone of Rio de Janeiro. Some fishermen shared the famous mureta -a wall that borders the sea- with kissing couples and groups of young people who ate “bolinhos de bacalhao” marinated with Original beer. "During the pandemic, no one came and the fish disappeared; now they have returned," explains one of the fishermen. "But what does it have to do with it?" we asked. "People throw food from the wall and the fish eat it," he replies.
It is a good example of a virtuous cycle that Lula wants to create. "Popular consumption" will be the motor of "the wheel of the economy," said the veteran leader of the left last week, recovering the Rooseveltian discourse of his first governments (2003-2010). "We want people to be able to travel, buy a house, a car," he said.
The process begins with Bolsa Família, a new version of its famous anti-poverty subsidy program. 600 reais a month - about 100 euros - to all poor families and another 150 reais for those with children under seven years of age. The minimum monthly salary - which serves as a reference for collective agreements and pensions - will rise to 1,300 reais (234 euros) and is intended to help indebted families.
It's not much, but the poor spend everything they earn. Even the conservative daily Estado de Sao Paulo foresees a "new wave of popular consumption", which will benefit companies and the economy.
The carnival can be the first impulse. Not only because of the strong economic impact, equivalent to almost 1,000 million euros, according to estimates. The psychological impact may be even more significant. Some hoped that the World Cup in Qatar would help overcome the hatred (both for Bolsonaro and Lula) and the tension that divides the country. It didn't happen. The carnival remains.
At the Hotel Nacional last Saturday, many Lula voters and some Bolsonaro voters ate feijoada and danced to Bahian funk at the Salgueiro samba school party. The hotel, a 34-story cylindrical skyscraper, is a good symbol of Brazil's ability to recover from the worst misfortunes. The work of Oscar Niemeyer, built in front of the then small Rocinha favela at the end of the sixties, it later became a modern ruin. Rehabilitated by a Spanish hotel group, now it is going through a good moment and, with the carnival, even better. "For the feijoadas they hire a lot more waiters," said one hotel worker.
In most of the blocos de carnaval, the well-known Brazilian comparsas, the end of Bolsonaro is a reason to lose their hair. "After I became an alligator, I got rid of Jair", ironizes the lyrics of the new samba by the bloco Imprensa que eu Gamo. In 2020, Bolsonaro had fueled conspiracy theories about the side effects of coronavirus vaccines by joking: "If you turn into an alligator, it's your problem."
Bolsonarismo has already withdrawn from the streets and the barracks -although not from social networks- so this may be the moment of the "other Brazil". "At the carnival we are going to celebrate democracy," announced the mayor of Rio, Eduardo Paes.
Paes has replaced evangelical pastor Marcelo Crivella in the mayor's office, whose megachurch describes the great Afro-Brazilian party as a work of Satan. His attempt to withdraw the budget for the carnival did not prosper. But in Rio and throughout Brazil, right-wing evangelicalism remains strong. Michelle Bolsonaro, Bolsonaro's neo-Pentecostal wife, who has just returned without her husband from Orlando, is already being considered as a possible presidential candidate.
That is the dilemma for Lula. With a very fragile coalition in Congress and against a Bolsonaro movement that will soon be back in charge, the new president has to quickly implement the recovery plan.
But in the social area it has been slow. The revocation of Bolsonaro's decrees that deregulated firearms and the environment has been a priority, as has the debolsonarization of the security forces. Bolsa Família will not be launched until March. Already a month in power, "the government has no traction (...) it has its eyes fixed on the rear-view mirror," Veja magazine attacked.
The government's response may be that, as they say in Brazil, the new year doesn't start until after carnival. But, behind the parties at the Hotel Nacional, hundreds of people sleep on the street and, in Urca, it is not only the fish that feed on the leftovers. Following the wall to Playa de Botafogo, black men appear at sunset to rummage through the garbage in search of food.
