The leading group from Malaga has achieved its main objective: to spray the Andalusian electorate of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party with anesthetic. This is confirmed by all the surveys published in recent weeks. This is how the special survey on the next elections in Andalusia signs it, released yesterday by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS). The Popular Party would currently be about ten seats away from the absolute majority thanks to a monumental demobilization of the electorate that was supposed to be loyal to the left in the most populous region of Spain. The election campaign started last night.
The current Andalusian president, Manuel Moreno Bonilla, and his right-hand man, Elías Bendodo, both originally from Malaga, have achieved their main purpose after dislodging the PSOE from power in December 2018: to govern without mobilizing the opposing camp. Quite the opposite of what is happening to Pedro Sánchez.
Work plan: keep a good part of the inheritance received to reassure opponents, without resorting to so-called cultural battles). Governing Andalusia without causing a wave of nostalgia regarding the hegemonic party for almost forty years, a PSOE that ended up succumbing due to lack of renewal, led by Susana Díaz, a late leader trained in the Socialist Youth, fearsome in internal party battles, to the that he had to manage a sad twilight.
The CIS data does not bode well for the Andalusian left: the Popular Party would win the elections with 35% of the vote and a range of between 47 and 49 seats. Ten points below, the PSOE could obtain between 32 and 36 seats. To the left of the PSOE, the mosaic is fragmented even more: the coalition Por Andalucía would touch the ten seats. The Cádiz split of Podemos, with the name of Adelante Andalucía, would obtain about two seats. If these forecasts are fulfilled, the sum of the lefts would not be able to overcome the Popular Party. In such circumstances, the new Andalusian alpha party could govern alone, threatening Vox with an electoral repetition in case the investiture is blocked.
That scenario would be an incontestable victory for the narcotic spray of Moreno Bonilla and Bendodo against the spicy gas canister of Isabel Díaz Ayuso and Miguel Ángel Rodríguez, whose main strategy in Madrid consists of insulting the left every day to magnetize and attract Vox voters. .
A right-wing party that is electorally stronger than the entire left together in Andalusia. Here is a possible historical milestone. A victory of these characteristics would be a phenomenal triumph for Alberto Núñez Feijóo in his swift race to consolidate himself as a powerful candidate for the presidency of the Government. The PP would project a lot of force and the left would go into depression. Despite the good employment data, known yesterday, the left is once again feeling a severe cold sweat these days in the face of the serious problems arising from the war in Ukraine after two years of a dramatic pandemic. The tensions in United We Can not cease. Núñez Feijóo would see his bet endorsed: moderantism with an iron fist. Narcotizing spray, with a can of pepper on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
Vote transfers from the PSOE to the PP are detected. 22% of those who voted for the Socialist Party in 2018 now prefer Moreno as president. Transformed into the Andalusian Institutional Party, the PP would collect support from almost all electorates. The main band of undecided voters is that of those who hesitate between socialists and popular.
If that prediction is not confirmed, the Government of Andalusia would be highly conditioned by Vox, which would obtain between 17 and 21 seats, with 15%, according to the CIS. The extreme right advances, although there is no macarenazo, an overwhelming result for the candidate Macarena Olona, who will have to control her tendency to overreact in the next two weeks. If the PP were forced to agree with Vox –or to ask for help from the PSOE–, the balance would not be so good for Núñez Feijóo. It could be catastrophic, even.
With what magnitude can the PP establish itself as the most voted party in the most populated region of Spain. With what alliances can Andalusia continue to govern, which always sets standards in Spain. That are the keys of June 19. The CIS has set the bar very high.
Yesterday was Thursday. Yesterday, Núñez Feijóo resorted to pepper spray and accused the Catalan Generalitat of practicing "linguistic apartheid". [Apartheid, regime of racial segregation in force in South Africa between 1948 and 1992]. Here is a singular moderantism. Catalan pepper has always flavored Andalusian elections.
