Tailwind for the Valencian right

When at the end of February the project of his friend and great supporter Pablo Casado (whom no one now remembers) fell apart, little did Carlos Mazón think that the political scene would turn so ugly in just four months and a moment key to the legislature.

NewsEditor
NewsEditor
24 June 2022 Friday 12:21
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Tailwind for the Valencian right

When at the end of February the project of his friend and great supporter Pablo Casado (whom no one now remembers) fell apart, little did Carlos Mazón think that the political scene would turn so ugly in just four months and a moment key to the legislature.

The renewal of the PP and the rise of Alberto Nuñez Feijóo changed the mood of the popular, and the best prospects were fulfilled last Sunday in Andalusia with an unexpected absolute majority that, in addition, stopped Vox and led the PSOE to the worst result of its history in this autonomy.

Beyond the growth of the brand in the most populated region of Spain -which confirmed the winds of change in the surveys published at the national level-, the Andalusian call made clear the demobilization (and demoralization) of the left and the strengthening of the popular project . Somehow, the vote "against Sánchez" mobilized the conservative electorate.

With no time to digest the debacle in Andalusia, the Valencian Government has gone through the worst crisis this week since the leftists conquered the Generalitat Valenciana in 2015. With President Ximo Puig urging Compromís to "reflect" -and "sooner rather than later"- on the future of Oltra and the coalition warning that any "unilateral" decision would blow up the Valencian Government. "I'm not going to give the PSOE the alibi to remove the leftist policies from the government," argued Oltra at the press conference in which he explained his resignation.

And all this without the Valencian PP having even had to appear in the case that investigates the alleged negligent management of the Department of Inclusive Policies in the protection of the minor abused by Oltra's ex-husband. It was the extreme right that agitated and reopened the case in court and Vox that did appear to try to have all the information first-hand and play with an advantage.

Given this scenario, PP sources explained to La Vanguardia that, according to their tracking, the opposition would already have better numbers than the three Valencian left-wing forces, that is, the sum of the PSPV, Compromís and Unides Podem. In addition, they reveal that they had already begun to detect a drop in Compromís and a certain wear and tear on the PSPV led by Ximo Puig.

However, in the PP they are aware that they are data and a still photo and that they have "despite having the wind in their tail" to arrive with the largest possible cushion to the elections that are almost a year away. "We cannot trust each other," they explain from Carlos Mazón's environment.

And more if you take into account that you enter an unprecedented scenario. It is difficult to gauge the effect of Oltra's departure from the Valencian political scene, both on the leadership of Compromís and on the institutional project of the Botànic.

No one is unaware that Oltra has been a basic electoral asset, first, to promote political change (2015) and, later, to prop it up (2019). In this last call where regional and general coexistence, Oltra achieved 270,000 votes more than his companion Joan Baldoví in the next ballot box. The spokesman for the Poble Valencià Initiative, Alberto Ibáñez, already said that his figure transcends the Compromís voter.

All in all, it remains to be seen whether Oltra's popularity and drive remained intact and to what extent Baldoví can benefit from a scenario - that of the regional elections - where the voter can seek the Valencianist speech of Compromís to withstand the pull, and together with the support of the mayors of the coalition, do a good job at the polls.

It also remains to be seen whether after the departure of Oltra, who has been in a long-standing conflict with Ximo Puig, the tension between the partners is lowered and the partners begin to understand that only with a good result from the three legs of the Executive, the reissue of the Botànic will be possible. What is certain is that the state of mind of the Valencian PP is the best since they lost the elections in 2015, as well as their hopes.

On the opposite side, a certain pessimism has settled in the forces of the Botànic. Although from the PSPV and Compromís they remain convinced that the Valencians will know how to "reward the management" of these years in Health, Education and Social Welfare. And that the great achievements in industrial matters - the Seat gigafactory or the commitment to the Ford of Almussafes - will have electoral profitability.

Although it is early to elucidate it, what no one questions is that the "tailwind" is supporting the PP. There is less than a year left to confirm or deny it.

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