Stopping climate change would prevent 80% of heat deaths in the Middle East and Africa

More than 80% of predicted heat-related deaths in the Middle East and North Africa by the end of this century could be prevented if global warming were limited to two degrees above pre-industrial levels.

Oliver Thansan
Oliver Thansan
09 April 2023 Sunday 08:26
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Stopping climate change would prevent 80% of heat deaths in the Middle East and Africa

More than 80% of predicted heat-related deaths in the Middle East and North Africa by the end of this century could be prevented if global warming were limited to two degrees above pre-industrial levels.

That is the main conclusion of a modeling study published in the journal The Lancet Planetary Health.

In a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions, it is predicted that 123 of every 100,000 people in that region of the planet will die annually from heat-related causes by the end of this century, 60 times more than now and much more than predictions. of the same scenario in the rest of the world.

However, limiting global warming to 2°C could prevent more than 80% of these deaths, highlighting the urgent need for better adaptation policies and a shift to renewable technologies, according to the study authors.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is one of the most climate vulnerable regions in the world, with maximum temperatures projected to rise to nearly 50 degrees by the end of the century, potentially causing some areas are uninhabitable. Despite this vulnerability, the impact of heat stress in this region, made worse by climate change, remains unexplored.

An international team of researchers, including from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (UK), modeled current (2001 to 2020) and future (2021 to 2100) trends in heat-related mortality in 19 Middle Eastern countries. and North Africa.

In their analyses, the team considered variations in the levels of potential greenhouse gas emissions over time and different socioeconomic scenarios.

Under high emissions scenarios most of the MENA region will experience substantial levels of warming by the 2060s.

So annual heat-related deaths will increase from 2 per 100,000 people now to 123 per 100,000 between 2081 and 2100.

Although current heat-related deaths in that part of the world are relatively low compared to other regions (17 per 100,000 in Western Europe or 10 per 100,000 in Australasia, for example), this increase is expected to be much larger than in other regions of the world under similar climate change scenarios. For example, the UK is expected to see an increase from the current numbers of 3 per 100,000 people to 9 per 100,000 by the 2080s.

In addition, Iran may have the highest annual death rate in the Middle East and North Africa (423 per 100,000) and other countries, such as Palestine, Iraq, and Israel, are expected to have high rates (186, 169, and 163). per 100,000, respectively). Smaller Gulf states such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates will see the largest relative increases in heat-related deaths.

However, if global warming is limited to 2ºC compared to pre-industrial times, more than 80% of those projected 123 annual deaths per 100,000 people in the Middle East and North Africa due to heat could be avoided.

The study authors note that traditional heat adaptation solutions, such as air conditioning, will not suffice because air conditioning is used relatively heavily in countries where heat-related death rates are higher than the regional average, such as Israel. and Cyprus.

“Global warming will need to be limited to 2°C to avoid the catastrophic health impacts estimated in our study. Even with stronger action, countries in the region must develop ways other than air conditioning to protect their citizens from the dangers of extreme heat," says Shakoor Hajat, lead author and professor of Global Environmental Health at the School of Hygiene and London Tropical Medicine.