The warming tests take place in Spain. This year, the Peninsula recorded its third warmest summer in the historical series, behind the years 2022 and 2003. Temperatures have been on average this summer quarter (June, July and August) 1.3 ºC above normal. It has also been a summer rich in episodes of extreme heat as demonstrated by 4 heat waves and 24 days under this situation of extreme temperatures in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. But, in addition, if the meteorological behavior is analyzed throughout the period between January and August, it is confirmed that the current year 2023 ties - for now - with 2022 and 2020 as the warmest year recorded so far. From 1961 to 2023, the average temperature in mainland Spain has increased by 1.6 ºC, according to the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet).
"It has been a very warm summer, we are talking about the third warmest since there are records with a historical series that begins in 1961. It has been the warmest behind last year and the famous summer of 2003," highlights Rubén del Campo. , spokesperson for Aemet in an appearance with the Minister for the Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera.
For Del Campo, the most relevant thing is that "nine of the ten warmest summers since 1961 have occurred in the 21st century, and four of the five warmest have taken place since 2015," he adds. Hot summers are piling up.
The summer has been extremely warm in large areas of the southern third of the Iberian Peninsula and in the western Cantabrian Sea, while it was very warm in the rest of peninsular Spain.
The maximum daily temperatures were on average 1.2 °C above the normal value, while the minimum temperatures were 1.4 °C above the average.
During the summer there have been episodes of high temperatures and four heat waves have been recorded in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands with 24 days in heat wave situations. "If compared to last year it seems little, since there were 41; but this year more than a quarter of the summer days we have been in an extreme situation due to high temperatures," adds Del Campo. It is the fourth summer with the highest number of days in this situation, after 2022, 2015 and 2017.
The average in the 80s, 90s and first decade of the 21st century was seven days, so this figure is multiplying by three.
"The graphs clearly indicate to us that there is a trend towards an increase in days under heat waves in Spain of about 3 days per decade," adds the spokesperson. "We will have to face more extreme situations more frequently," he says.
Those with maximum temperatures above 40.0 °C have occurred in a large part of the territory and 45.0 °C have been exceeded in some parts of the province of Valencia and Andalusia on August 10 and 11.
At the Valencia airport, a maximum temperature of 46.8 ºC was recorded on the 10th, the highest recorded this summer in Spain and which broke the season record by more than 3 ºC.
"Traditionally, records have been broken by tenths or by a degree at most; but this year records have been broken that draw attention due to the wide margin recorded," highlights Del Campo.
In the city of Malaga there were two "hellish" nights, a new name not yet consolidated referring to those nights in which they do not drop below 40 ºC, one with a minimum temperature of 31.2 ºC, on the 20th of July. And in one station in Tenerife it did not drop below 37 ºC one night.
In the same way, the temperature of the coastal waters of Spain also registered, between January and August, its highest value since there are data. "From January to August, if we take the average, the temperature of the coastal waters surrounding Spain has reached almost 19.5ºC, which is 0.5ºC higher than the previous warmest record, corresponding to 2020," says Del Campo.
This warmer water is "fuel" for storms and can leave more intense rainfall when the most suitable conditions occur. "This indicator is also showing us extreme values," highlights the spokesperson.
At 23 main stations the mean summer temperature was the highest in the respective summer series. Likewise, in 15 stations the average maximum was also the highest since records began, and in 29 the average minimum exceeded the previous highest value in the series.
There were also three episodes of temperatures below normal, of short duration: the first between July 25 and 26, the second between August 3 and 5, and the last between August 27 and 30.
If the meteorological behavior is analyzed in the period between January and August, the year 2023 ties with 2022 and 2020 as the warmest in the historical series, with an average temperature of 15.7 ºC, which is 1.1 ºC per year. above the normal average.
From 1961 to 2023, the average temperature in mainland Spain has increased by 1.6 ºC.
In terms of precipitation, it was a very humid summer. 87.2 mm were accumulated in mainland Spain, 24% above the normal average.
It was the 16th wettest summer since the series began in 1961, and the third wettest of the 21st century, after the summers of 2010 and 2018.
However, at the end of summer the Iberian Peninsula as a whole is in a situation of meteorological drought considering the rainfall of the previous 12 months.
All accumulation basins, except the Tagus, are in this situation.
There is also a long-lasting meteorological drought, that is, taking into account the rains of the previous three years, for the whole of peninsular Spain and in all the accumulation basins, except those of the Júcar, Segura and Tajo.
In the Guadalquivir and Guadiana basins it is the longest drought since at least 1961. "It started in 2016, that is, it has been going on for seven years" while the one in the 90s lasted 4 years.
In the eastern Pyrenees basin it is the most intense meteorological drought since the beginning of the series.
Seasonal prediction models point to a high probability (greater than 60% in the Peninsula and 70% in the archipelagos) that the meteorological autumn - which begins on September 1 and ends on November 30 - will be warmer than normal .
If a longer-term prediction is taken into account, and extending it to the quarter made up of the months of October, November and December, "we are going towards a very warm quarter, with temperatures much higher than normal," says Del Campo. . The forecast is for a 50-70% chance of it being warmer than normal across the country; It is a very strong probability, says the spokesperson.
Also - according to the models - it could be rainier than normal, although in this case there are greater uncertainties. There is a 40-50% chance of it being a rainy quarter versus a 20-40% chance of it being dry. "Here we cannot get so 'wet' because this is a more elusive parameter in our latitudes, because with one or two very rainy episodes the average for the entire season can already be reached," he adds.
"There is a greater probability that it will be a rainy autumn, with above-normal rainfall in most of Spain and especially in the northwest of the Peninsula," says Del Campo.
If this were the case, it would be good news to stop the meteorological drought, which has already lasted a long time. It started in December 2022 and has continued despite the summer rains.
