The PSOE would win the general elections again if they were held now, but the PP would be only two points behind in vote estimation, according to the December barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) released in full institutional clash between the Government and their partners and the opposition of the right allied with the conservative judicial majorities.
According to the survey, Pedro Sánchez would obtain 30.6% of the votes, 2.1 points less than in the November barometer but 2.4 points more than in the 2019 elections, while Alberto Núñez Feijóo would receive the support of 28 .6% of voters, 1.4 points more than in the previous study and well ahead of the 21% harvested in the last general elections.
With these changes, the distance that separates both contenders would be reduced very significantly, going from 5.5 points last month to only two at the end of the year, just one year before the deadline for the next general elections.
The fall of the socialists and the rebound of the popular ones coincide -the field work was carried out between December 1 and 14- in the midst of the political controversy over the suppression of the crime of sedition, the embezzlement reform and the change of the system of election of the Constitutional Court. Also kicking in those days was the political tension over the first revisions to the lowering of sentences for sex offenders in application of the law of only yes is yes.
The previous barometer, for the month of November, was closed after the President of the Government announced that the crime of sedition would be abolished, but the processing of this controversial bill that has ended up reforming various articles of the Penal Code and even of other organic laws as well.
Regarding the rest of the parties, stability is the dominant note. Thus, Unidas Podemos does not seem to suffer any wear and tear due to the crisis of the releases due to the entry into force of the law of only yes is yes or due to internal discrepancies regarding the Sumar project of the second vice president, Yolanda Díaz, and it would see its expectations improved in 0.2 points with respect to November, up to 12.4% of the votes, although it would remain at 0.6 of the current figures.
Vox, for its part, would not see its numbers affected by the rise in the PP either and would even improve last month's forecasts by one tenth. Those of Santiago Abascal would achieve 10.2% of the votes, five below the results of 2019. And something similar happens with Ciudadanos. The oranges would obtain 2.9% of the vote, four tenths more than estimated in November, but still 3.9 points from the results of the previous elections.
Regarding the strictly Catalan formations, Esquerra would benefit electorally in a limited way from the reforms of the Criminal Code on sedition and embezzlement with an increase of two tenths compared to November. With 2.4% of the votes, ERC would remain 1.2 points below the 2019 figures. For its part, Junts would recover four tenths, up to 1.4%, and would remain eight tenths of what was achieved in the previous generals.
In relation to the problems that concern citizens, the economic ones and unemployment remain above, but this time the political problems that clearly relegate health, which remains in fourth position, slip into third position.
In the evaluation of leaders, Feijóo manages to surpass Sánchez (he already did it in July) by obtaining an average of 4.39, compared to 4.28 for the President of the Government who loses 0.14 points. In this line, the head of the Executive also loses in terms of confidence, since those who say they have little or no confidence in him go from 66% in November to almost 70%, while the leader of the opposition remains stable around 71% rejection rate. Those who prefer that the presidency of the government fall to the socialist leader at one point also fell, to 21.8%.
The second vice president and Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, remains the most valued leader with a 4.8, while Santiago Abascal with a 2.9 closes this ranking.
