Time will tell if Pedro Sánchez sinned in arrogance when on Tuesday in La Palma he assured that there will be no changes in the Government with which he intends to reach the end of the legislature. Stability in difficult times, that was the message.
From now until the call to the polls, scheduled for December 2023 or early January 2024, sixteen months will pass.
Sánchez challenges the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who starts as the favorite, to an endurance test. In a year and four months the marker may have changed several times.
The runners are already situated on the tartan. There is no time to lose: the Council of Ministers meets on Tuesday; On Thursday, Congress will vote on energy saving measures, the new self-employed contribution system, the aid plan for scholarship students, the "only yes is yes" law and free trains. We will see if Renfe withstands the pressure.
This vote will test whether the fidelity of the majority of the investiture is still intact at the beginning of the last leg of the race. Everything makes you think so. Feijóo's PP continues without creating incentives for the allies to see an alternative in him. Advantage for Sanchez.
There will be more tests. In September, Spain must present its contingency plan to Europe to reduce energy consumption. The August measures have been a warm-up exercise. What comes next will be something more serious. Especially if Russia cuts supplies to Europe and the entire continent has to draw on reserves in winter.
The Iberian exception –in which the Government played its cards well in Europe– gives Spain an advantage to pay the energy bill it needs. But if things go wrong over the Pyrenees, they will go wrong at home. The inveterate Spanish Europeanism can suffer a tear.
The famine and inflation are the main headache. Spain, with rampant levels of structural poverty and inequality, has little room for price increases. The labor market, in full tourist campaign, already has a red light on. Given this scenario, the Government deploys aid programs. The PP proposes to lower taxes.
More evidence: the war in Ukraine changes the paradigm. More war effort. There are commitments with NATO to fulfill. Increased defense spending and renewal of the Rota base agreement, where two new American destroyers will land. And there will be six. The most progressive government in history will collide with its cultural tradition. Everything has to go through Congress.
In month nine of this resistance race, in May 2023, the municipal and regional elections will be held, which the PSOE won in 2019. Everything that happens between now and until that month will be conditioned by that horizon.
Does the materialization of some agreements of the dialogue table with Catalonia fit into this scenario? It seems difficult, especially if things get complicated in the economic order. The coming months will be very hard, Margarita Robles warned last week. But it also seems clear that both parties have come to the conclusion that what is best for them is to guarantee each other's stability. In Catalonia, the future performance of Junts as a partner is a complete unknown.
Something similar happens with the other benchmark ally, the PNV. His discomfort with Sánchez is considerable. The 2023 budgets, important in an uncertain economic scenario, will define (once again) the strength of those ties.
Third key factor for stability: Yolanda Díaz's project, Sumar. The left of the left, with its historical tendency to cainism, can offer everything bad about itself. If Diaz doesn't do well, the left, all of it, will take a critical hit. August is being a relatively quiet month.
Meanwhile, on the other side, on the right, Feijóo is working on a gradual process of reunification. Vox, down after the collapse of Olona, and Ciudadanos, discounted forever.
In the eleventh month of this race, in July, Sánchez stands on the podium with the rotating European presidency. Depending on how he has done in Europe in winter, it could be a poisoned gift or a great opportunity.
The political future of Spain will also be at stake in the Italian elections – with a thriving anti-European far right. This week Russia has called for Italian voters to punish their rulers. That is, they vote for the extreme right.
And also Africa. Morocco, Algeria. Behind, the Sahel. Morocco is key, because Sánchez has bet everything on this country. The Ministry of the Interior works hard in Rabat. The money is provided by Europe. But if things go wrong at the border, everything will get complicated. As if Algeria, under the subtle Russian shadow, plays with the gas key. This month of August it has once again been our main supplier.
