Russian troops will evacuate 4,600 square kilometers in their third major withdrawal from Ukraine

The announced evacuation from the right bank of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region, which includes its capital of the same name, is the third by the Russian army in the Ukraine war after withdrawing from the Kyiv and Kharkiv regions.

Thomas Osborne
Thomas Osborne
10 November 2022 Thursday 22:30
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Russian troops will evacuate 4,600 square kilometers in their third major withdrawal from Ukraine

The announced evacuation from the right bank of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region, which includes its capital of the same name, is the third by the Russian army in the Ukraine war after withdrawing from the Kyiv and Kharkiv regions. And it is all the more significant since it is a territory of some 4,600 square kilometers that was declared an integral part of Russia by President Vladimir Putin in September.

Thus, in purely theoretical terms, the troops would be preparing to leave Russian territory without Putin seeming to consider, contrary to his own usual discourse, that the integrity of Russia is threatened. We must remember – and the Russian leader has made sure that it is not forgotten – the official doctrine of the use of nuclear weapons in the event that the country suffers an “existential threat”.

But, in real terms, what the decision represents – for which General Sergei Surovikin, head of the Russian forces in Ukraine, appears to be largely responsible – is a renunciation of the ambition to conquer the city of Odessa in order to complete the map of an ideal New Russia that would comprise the Donbass region and all of southern Ukraine. With the Ukrainian reconquest of the city of Mikolaiv on the way, that already seemed unlikely; now even less.

Faced with a Ukrainian offensive, announced repeatedly – ​​and yet not backed by a large concentration of troops, of which there has been no news – General Surovikin would have chosen not to defend the regional capital of Kherson at all costs and with his back to the Dnieper River, whose bridges have been destroyed by Ukrainian missile batteries, and instead would have decided to withdraw to the other bank to fortify itself there with three defense lines, to which must be added the Dnieper as a natural barrier, which is even more wide upstream of the Nova Kajovka dam, with its power plant, today the only passage on foot. In this way, a hypothetical Ukrainian advance towards the Crimean peninsula by the shortest path could become a titanic task, which certainly would not be for tomorrow.

The justification given by the star general of the Russian army in the television staging of the announcement of the withdrawal, together with Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, can be described as dramatic. Surovikin spoke of serious supply difficulties to Kherson. If this is the main reason, he reveals a resounding failure in the Russian logistics system, a victim of Ukrainian attacks. The added argument of saving soldiers' lives does not exactly improve the Russian public's view of the situation.

Presented in the official media as a “maneuver” – a euphemism reminiscent of a humorous “tactical move towards the rear” – the withdrawal is not an absolute novelty. Ukrainian propaganda has been saying – perhaps due to the permanent need to receive more missile artillery from friendly countries – that Russia had some of its best troops in Kherson, but already in mid-October (see La Vanguardia, 22/X/ 2022) independent Russian media speculated on the withdrawal. Surovikin warned of "difficult decisions" and a Russian correspondent in the region anticipated that there would be significant losses of territory. To this was added the speculation about a negotiating threat by Moscow. At the same time, the Russian –Sergei Shoigu– and American –Lloyd Austin– Defense officials spoke on the phone. The respective chiefs of staff have maintained contacts ever since.

Significantly, last Wednesday it became known that Russia and the United States had agreed to resume the negotiations of the New Start treaty on the reduction of strategic nuclear weapons, interrupted months before the invasion of Ukraine, when Moscow insisted that NATO should return to its borders 1997. And in parallel to all this, the White House has been pressuring the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to be open to a dialogue with Russia, in order to calm the Republicans who do not sympathize with the support for Ukraine and the European countries most anxious for the war to end. According to the Kyiv Post, Zelensky has backed away from his claim not to negotiate with Putin, but with whoever succeeds him, to satisfy Washington.

While waiting to know the meaning of all these movements, the Ukrainians have not thrown the bells to the flight before the withdrawal and spoke yesterday of a possible Russian trap, although the high command confirmed last night the reconquest of a dozen towns after, the Wednesday, and coinciding with the television announcement of the Russian chiefs, the important enclave of Snigurivka, 55 kilometers from the city of Kherson, will be retaken.

The withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnieper will allow both Russians and Ukrainians to focus on another scenario in the south of the country, but further east in the direction of Melitopol and, further away, Mariupol. Whether the Russians will achieve an orderly withdrawal, and whether there will be a battle for the city of Kherson – which was left without electricity or communications yesterday due to blasting by the Russians, according to Kyiv – remains to be seen.