Russia is already toying with the idea of taking over Bakhmut. The owner of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said in a video posted on Friday that his fighters have the Ukrainian city "practically surrounded." Ukrainian troops, he acknowledged, continue to defend themselves, "but their life in Bakhmut is short, about two days," he assured.
Prigozhin's men have been leading the assault against Bakhmut for months, which in Russia is still called Artiomovsk, the name it had until 2016.
Taking Bakhmut, which had a population of 70,000 before the conflict, would mark a victory for Moscow in this winter's slow offensive, especially after last year's withdrawals and after recruiting more than 300,000 reservists in the fall.
Dressed in uniform, Prigozhin addresses the President of Ukraine, Volodimir Zelensky, in the video and asks him to withdraw his troops from Bakhmut to save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers. “Wagner's units have practically surrounded Bakhmut. There is only one road left (open to Ukrainian forces). The clamps are tightening”, says the Russian oligarch.
“If before it was the Ukrainian professional army that was fighting against us, today we see that there are more and more old people and children. They are fighting, but their life in Bakhmut is short, about two days”, predicts the head of the mercenaries. And, addressing Zelensky directly, he adds: "Give them a chance to get out of town."
For months Ukraine has been ready to defend this enclave for as long as possible. Last Tuesday, February 27, Zelensky stated in his nightly message that the army continued to resist, although he recognized that the situation was difficult. The Reuters agency confirmed yesterday that Ukrainian soldiers continued to dig trenches in the west of the city, and Kyiv continued to send more soldiers to the front, a possible sign that Ukraine is not yet ready to hand over the city.
Another sign would be the visit to Bakhmut yesterday by the commander of the Land Forces of the Ukrainian Army, Olexánder Sirski. This department stated in a statement that the Russians are putting all the meat on the grill to take over the city. "The Russian occupiers have launched the most prepared units of the Wagner group and other units of the Russian army to capture the city," he explained in a message posted on Telegram.
According to Ukraine, Bakhmut has little strategic value, but wants to use it to exhaust Russian forces. The deputy commander of the National Guard of Ukraine, Volodimir Nazarenko, told Radio NV that the situation was “critical”, that fighting was going on around the clock. “The task of our forces in Bakhmut is to inflict the greatest possible number of losses on the enemy. Every meter of Ukrainian land costs the enemy hundreds of lives, ”he said.
But Prigozhin's forecast could come true, even if it takes longer than the two days he talks about in his recorded message. The commander of a drone unit operating in Bakhmut, Robert Brovdi, known by the nickname Madyar, said in a video posted on his Telegram channel that his unit had been ordered to immediately leave the city. “What are the reasons for this transfer when we have spent 110 days of military service here? I am mainly a military man, so I will not comment on the orders, ”he said in his message.
On March 1, Alexander Rodnianski, Zelensky's adviser, said in an interview with CNN that the military will withdraw from Bakhmut if the high command so decides. “For now they hold the city, but if necessary they will withdraw strategically, because we are not going to sacrifice all our people for nothing,” he explained. Of course, he did not give any dates.
While Bakhmut resists, the pressure of the Russian offensive could reach in the next few days further north, in the province of Kharkiv, which the Russians occupied at the beginning of the military intervention, but from which they had to withdraw in September. The Ukrainian authorities of the Kupiansk district, close to the Luhansk region, have ordered the mandatory evacuation of the population of ten towns. Although they did not give details, that could indicate the advance of Russian bombing.
Yevgueni Prigozhin ends the video in which he asks Zelensky to leave by showing three Ukrainian prisoners: an old man and two boys. Looking down, the older one asks the Ukrainian president to return home and the younger ones add: “Please!”
