Poland hosts some 2.7 million refugees from Ukraine: 1.2 million arrived since 2014 and another 1.5 million after the Russian invasion on February 24. By way of comparison, and as reported by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Germany has welcomed one million Ukrainians, the Czech Republic 464,000 and various other countries 200,000 or slightly less. As of mid-October, there were some 4.7 million Ukrainians registered for temporary protection outside the country.
For their part, Ukrainians, both in Poland and at home, offer constant tokens of gratitude to the Poles for the favorable reception after the invasion and for the military aid Poland has provided since then. However, it is the Ukrainians who deserve the thanks. It is they who are fighting and dying not only for their own freedom, but also for Poland's.
However, the interviews that Przemysław Sadura and I have conducted reveal a growing resentment among Poles towards these refugees. It is a resentment that presents some grim paradoxes and ultimately has little to do with the Ukrainians themselves. Poles are concerned about not being given priority in the allocation of public benefits and services, such as healthcare and education, and many oppose Ukrainians receiving national identification numbers, free public transport and other benefits. There is a belief that such generosity will discourage refugees from returning home, overburden already inefficient public services and take jobs away from Poles.
In fact, more than 400,000 newcomers to Poland in 2022 already have jobs, and economists say the labor market could absorb at least twice that number. However, the facts matter little to those who hold these views, which often come from secondhand accounts. Apparently, we are in the “refugee season” in Poland: if you have to blame someone for your own problems, you look at the Ukrainians.
Scapegoating Ukrainians makes them victims of Poland's deteriorating economic situation. Inflation is around 18%, energy prices have skyrocketed and the State and public services with low endowments are paralyzed. The refugees are not helped by the fact that the Polish government's propaganda blames the war for all these problems.
To further complicate the picture, the growing resentment towards Ukrainian refugees does not mean any resistance to helping Ukraine. Few Poles bring up old grievances from their country's difficult history with Ukraine (such as the 1943 Volhynia massacre) and there is hardly any dissenting opinion about the war in the public sphere. Hostility towards refugees is largely confined to the realm of hearsay, not first-hand accounts. With the exception of the far-right Confederation party, neither the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, nor any other party is trying to take advantage of growing public fears about Ukrainian refugees. That said, neither party has adequately addressed the issue either.
So far, the animosity towards Ukrainian refugees has not given rise to dehumanization or hate speech like the one we saw when Belarus tried to funnel Middle Eastern refugees across the Polish border. Unlike immigrants from other cultures, Ukrainians are usually accepted as guests. However, this antipathy will have to be faced. Poles must be encouraged to share their feelings as part of a broader dialogue. That will help people see that the problem is not related to the Ukrainians, but to the lack of trust in the state and in others. Opposition parties should lead that dialogue. If the refugee issue is not discussed openly and carefully, sooner or later populists will end up taking advantage of it.
It will not necessarily be those in power who are dedicated to adding fuel to the fire. The PiS government does not want to squander the international recognition gained by welcoming Ukrainians and supporting the war effort. The situation is somewhat reminiscent of the experience in Germany in 2015. As public concern over the massive influx of refugees found no expression in the media or mainstream parties, the right-wing Alternative for Germany managed to fill the void and in 2017 he won his first seats in the Bundestag.
Something similar could happen in Poland's general elections next year. To defuse the time bomb, the opposition parties should craft a message that recognizes the right of Poles to fear in the face of rising house prices, lack of places in kindergartens and difficulties in getting an appointment. medical. They have a right to be tired of helping. Having made that acknowledgment, the Polish leadership should patiently explain that the real threat is not the refugees.
At the same time, Polish civil society should step in to offer more real (not just legal) support for refugee integration, so that more Poles get to know first-hand Ukrainians, Belarusians and other refugees. Since integration is rarely discussed, such efforts remain superficial. It will depend on the media, NGOs and public authorities that the situation changes. Today, social media is increasingly abuzz with anti-refugee statements, many of which are spread by anonymous trolls and bots. In the absence of mainstream media coverage, such messages create the impression that the elites are trying to hide “how things really are”.
It is wrong to praise the Poles for their response to the war; but it is equally foolhardy to heap reproaches on Poles who resent refugees. What the country needs is a frank dialogue regarding the economic problems suffered by the population. The longer politicians remain silent, hoping the problem will go away, the more adjustment will eventually have to be made.
