Putin closes in on defeat

The Russian president cannot win in Ukraine, but he cannot afford to lose either.

Thomas Osborne
Thomas Osborne
07 October 2022 Friday 05:32
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Putin closes in on defeat

The Russian president cannot win in Ukraine, but he cannot afford to lose either. This is the contradiction that will grip Europe during the coming winter and it is impossible to know how it will be resolved.

Every week it is clearer that Putin will not be able to achieve the goals he set for himself when he ordered the invasion. Today, NATO is a greater threat, not a lesser one, the European Union is a more united organization, the support of China, India and the countries of the global south is more token than effective, and the support of the Russian people has cracked since the end of September ordered the mobilization of 300,000 men.

On the ground, the news is no better. The Ukrainian army is not only resisting but advancing on almost all fronts thanks to a new strategy. The US HIMARS rocket launchers – it has 16 systems and four more are on the way – destroy command posts and key infrastructure in the rear, while the infantry, better distributed on the ground, launch very fast and effective night offensives.

The information that comes from the battlefield is diffuse because the Ukrainian military authorities themselves hide it so as not to favor the enemy. Still, it seems clear that the Russian positions west of the Dnieper River are compromised. The Ukrainian advance from Mikolaiv is slow but steady. Kherson, the main city in Russian power, is threatened.

The Russian withdrawal from Liman, in a very disorderly manner, indicates the weakness of the combat units, poorly led and supplied.

The Kremlin has announced that 200,000 Russians have already been ordered to join the ranks. Their training and incorporation into the front units should take several months, a time that the Russian army does not have. The temptation to dispatch new troops to the front lines before they are ready is great. If they form their own units, they will be an easy target, but if they join those that have been fighting for months, they will be a liability. In any case, casualties can skyrocket.

Tens of thousands of Russians have fled to avoid the draft. They don't want to fight a war they don't believe in. They know that their most likely destiny is to be cannon fodder.

Oil remains for Putin as the last bastion. China, India and other countries are going to continue buying it. Prices will remain high despite the EU and its G7 allies trying to impose a cap. They will sanction, for example, oil companies that sell it above this maximum. If the system works, the price should go down. To avoid this, Russia proposes to OPEC to reduce production by 2%. Saudi Arabia, which also needs high revenues to finance the monarchy's pharaonic projects, supports the reduction.

Russia will have money to buy social peace and produce more weapons. Putin may buy time, but not come close to victory.

When cornered, he could use the atomic bomb, tactical nuclear bombs intended to be used on the battlefield. Its destructive force is more than double that of Hiroshima.

The great value of the atomic bomb, however, has always been its deterrent. Using it can be very counterproductive. Even in the open field, Russian troops would be exposed to radiation. All these setbacks haunt Putin as he calculates his next move.