Peace in the grain war

One of the most dire consequences of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine seems to have been averted after formalizing a pact yesterday in Istanbul to unblock grain exports from Ukrainian ports.

Thomas Osborne
Thomas Osborne
22 July 2022 Friday 18:48
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Peace in the grain war

One of the most dire consequences of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine seems to have been averted after formalizing a pact yesterday in Istanbul to unblock grain exports from Ukrainian ports. After the agreement, made possible thanks to two months of mediation by Turkey and the UN, Ukraine will be able to put on the world market more than 20 million tons stuck in its silos.

The understanding reached also allows Russian grain and fertilizers to be exported, despite economic sanctions from Western countries. The lack of cereals from two of the world's main exporters, the United Nations had warned, could cause an unprecedented food crisis and famine in the most vulnerable countries.

Despite having achieved this agreement, Moscow and Kyiv staged their differences in ancient Constantinople. Their delegations refused to sit at the same table, greet each other and sign next to each other, so the pact was formalized in two documents.

One was signed by the Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigú, and his Turkish counterpart, Hulusi Akar, and the UN Secretary General, António Guterres, appeared as a witness. The other was signed together with the Turkish representative by the Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine, Olexánder Kubrakov.

Ukraine and Western countries blame Russia for blocking the departure of grain cargo ships with its fleet. Moscow, for its part, argues that the cereal crisis is the responsibility of Western sanctions for slowing down its food and fertilizer exports, and also of Ukraine for mining the waters near its Black Sea ports.

Despite these differences, yesterday the atmosphere was one of optimism. “It will bring relief to developing countries on the brink of bankruptcy and the most vulnerable people on the brink of famine. And it will help stabilize world food prices, which were already at record levels before the war," Guterres said.

“The beacon of hope in the Black Sea shines today thanks to the collective efforts of so many in these difficult and turbulent times for the region and our planet. Let that beacon guide the way to alleviate human suffering and ensure peace,” said the former Portuguese prime minister.

Turkey has been key to the understanding, as Russian President Vladimir Putin has recognized. During the meeting they held last Tuesday in Tehran, the head of the Kremlin thanked the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "We have advanced thanks to his mediation," he said publicly.

Ankara also pushed for major peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv after Putin in February ordered the Russian army to be sent to Ukraine in what he called a "special military operation."

Those contacts ended up running aground, but Turkey continues to present itself as a mediator in the conflict. Despite being a member of NATO, it maintains good relations with Russia and Ukraine. Erdogan has refused to impose sanctions on Russia, but he has provided Ukraine with weapons, such as his Bayraktar drones. These relations with both countries allow Turkey to be considered neutral ground. It should also be borne in mind that it is the country that controls the straits (Bosphorus and Dardanelles) that connect the Black Sea with the Mediterranean.

The Turkish president yesterday acted as host at the signing ceremony of the agreement. In his speech, he stressed that what was signed removes the "danger of hunger for billions of people in the Middle East and Africa." And he expressed his hope that the understanding will spread to the entire Ukrainian conflict and help bring about peace. “The war will come to an end at the negotiating table. The end of the conflict will benefit all of humanity," Erdogan said, noting that he will continue to make efforts, "until peace is negotiated."

The blockade of the Black Sea had left more than 20 million tons of cereals and sunflower seeds stuck in Ukrainian ports.

According to Ukrainian deputy Rustem Umerov, a member of the Ukrainian delegation, Ukrainian grain exports are planned to leave from three ports: Odessa, Yuzhne and Chornomorsk.

The agreement provides that cargo ships will be guided by Ukrainian pilots through mined waters in their territorial waters and that the ships can deliver their cargo only through certain safe corridors.

A team from the UN and Turkey will be in charge of carrying out inspections of ships entering and leaving the Black Sea. They will also verify that they do not carry military cargo, a concern expressed by Russia so that Ukraine does not take advantage of the system to receive weapons on cargo ships that arrive empty at its ports to collect grain.

Ukraine, for its part, was concerned that Russia would take advantage of the pact to intensify its attacks on the Odessa region. Russian Minister Shoigu assured that Russia will not do it. “Russia has assumed the obligations that are clearly spelled out in this document. We will not take advantage of the fact that the ports are cleared and opened, ”he told the Russian channel Rossiya-24.

In a separately signed pact, Russian food and fertilizer exports will be facilitated. For this, the US and the EU have ensured that their sanctions will not apply to these shipments.

To supervise the agreement, a coordination center will be established in Istanbul. UN officials told reporters that the pact will be fully operational in a few weeks and that the goal is for grain exports to reach their pre-war level of five million tons a month.