The world is failing to control the climate crisis. The action plans - and the real actions - of the countries to confront this planetary problem are very far from achieving the objective of limiting global warming to 1.5 ºC, as set out in the Paris Agreements, and avoiding the worst of the climate catastrophe. This is the main message of the new report of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), published on November 14, with less than a month left before the celebration of the UNFCCC summit in Dubai (United Arab Emirates). climate COP-28 (28th Conference of the Parties - signatory countries - to the UNFCCC).
Global ambition in the fight against climate change "stalled over the past year and national climate plans are strikingly misaligned" with the needs for action identified by scientists, says the new report from this UN entity. Unfortunately, the content of the new report does nothing more than reiterate the lack of plans and actions against climate change that have already been denounced in previous similar documents.
"Under current national plans, global greenhouse gas emissions are projected to rise 9% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels. However, the science is clear: emissions must fall 45% by the end this decade compared to 2010 levels to meet the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees.
A new UN Climate Change report concludes that national climate action plans remain insufficient to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Even with greater efforts by some countries, the report shows that much more action is now needed to further tilt the trajectory of global emissions and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
“Today's report shows that combined governments are taking small steps to avoid the climate crisis. And it shows why governments must take bold steps at COP28 in Dubai to get back on track,” said UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell. “This means that COP28 must be a clear turning point. “Governments must not only agree what stronger climate actions will be taken, but also start showing exactly how to implement them.”
Stiell emphasized that the conclusion of the first global stocktake at COP28 is where nations can regain momentum to intensify their efforts in all areas and move towards meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. The stocktake aims to inform the next round of climate action plans under the Paris Agreement (known as nationally determined contributions or “NDCs”) due to be submitted by 2025, paving the way for accelerated action.
“The Global Stocktake report published by UN Climate Change this year clearly shows where progress is too slow. But it also exposes the wide range of tools and solutions proposed by countries. “Billions of people are waiting to see their governments take this toolbox and put it into practice,” Stiell said.
The latest scientific data from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates that greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. This is essential to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century and avoid the worst impacts of climate change, including droughts, heat waves and more frequent and severe rainfall.
“Every fraction of a degree matters, but we are way off course. COP28 is our time to change that,” said Stiell. “It is time to show now the enormous benefits of bolder climate action: more jobs, higher wages, economic growth, opportunity and stability, less pollution and better health.”
UN Climate Change analyzed the NDCs of 195 Parties to the Paris Agreement, including 20 new or updated NDCs submitted by September 25, 2023. Consistent with the findings of last year's analysis, today's report shows that while Emissions are no longer increasing after 2030, compared to 2019 levels, they are not yet demonstrating the rapid downward trend that science believes is necessary in this decade.
If the latest available NDCs are implemented, current commitments will increase emissions by approximately 8.8%, compared to 2010 levels. This is a marginal improvement over last year's assessment, which found that countries They were on track to increase emissions by 10.6% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.
By 2030, emissions are projected to be 2% below 2019 levels, highlighting that the peak of global emissions will occur in this decade.
To reach peak emissions before 2030, the report says, “the conditional elements of the NDC need to be implemented, which depends mainly on access to increased financial resources, technology transfer and technical cooperation, and development support.” of capabilities; as well as the availability of market-based mechanisms.”
“By using the Global Stocktake to plan for the future, we can make COP28 a turning point. And provide a springboard for a two-year surge in climate action,” Stiell said. “We need to rebuild trust in the Paris process. Which means meeting all commitments, particularly in financial matters, the great facilitator of climate action. And ensure we are increasing resilience to climate impacts everywhere.”
“Today's synthesis report on national climate plans underlines the need for us to act with greater ambition and urgency to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement; There is simply no time left for delays,” said Dr Sultan Al Jaber, President-designate of COP28. “COP28 must be a historic turning point in this critical decade for Parties to seize the moment of Global Stocktaking to commit to raising their ambition and come together, act and achieve results that keep 1.5°C within reach, without leaving anyone behind.”
"NDCs remain the cornerstone of our shared vision of achieving the Paris goals, including keeping the target below 2 degrees and aiming to limit the increase to less than 1.5 degrees," said the COP27 president. and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry. “In Sharm El-Sheikh, leaders discussed various initiatives to help us achieve that goal, as well as to help the Global South adapt their economies accordingly. We need to maintain the momentum as there is no time to waste or lose focus on the objective.”
