If the Richter scale that measures earthquakes were applied to politics, the one that just occurred would exceed ten. Not so much because Nicola Sturgeon's exit from the scene was unimaginable (there had been rumors and speculation for a long time), but because of what it means for the cause of Scottish independence, for Scotland and for the whole of the United Kingdom. It is the end of one era and the beginning of another.
Sturgeon is considered the greatest political beast Britain has had since Tony Blair, comparable in intensity only to Boris Johnson but much more subtle than him, with more finesse. After the defeat of the yes vote in the 2014 independence referendum, she managed to turn the situation around and increase support for sovereignism and the SNP (Scottish National Party), capturing lukewarm unionists who had not dared to take the step.
But if former Labor leader Harold Wilson said that a week is an eternity in politics, let alone the eight years Sturgeon had been prime minister, one more than her predecessor (and now arch-enemy) Alex Salmond. And lately his popularity (and the rebound of the SNP) had fallen due to the impasse in which the cause of independence finds itself, and a "trans law" similar to the Spanish one, which has allowed Isla Bryson, a double rapist who now declares himself to be female, has been admitted to a women's prison.
“It is true that there are problems, but there always are, and I am used to them. I am not leaving because of short-term pressure, but because I have come to the conclusion that it is the best for me personally, for my party and for my country. Being First Minister of Scotland is the best job in the world, but the physical and mental load is enormous," Sturgeon said at a news conference at Bute House in Edinburgh, her residence and the scene of many of the great political events in history. of the nation
The SNP leader will remain in the post until a successor is named, with a very open field of candidates including Kate Forbes (the young finance minister currently on maternity leave), Angus Robertson (former head of the parliamentary group in Westminster and current head of Culture and Foreign Affairs, a veteran), John Swinney (who was already in charge of the country when Salmond resigned impromptu, and returned the baton to him on his return), and Humza Yousaf (Muslim and head of Health).
Sturgeon indicated that in the short term he still had energy to have gone on for a while, but that gasoline would not have reached him until the end of the term. And in these circumstances, it was not fair that she was the one who drew up the strategy to obtain a new independence referendum, once the Supreme Court has agreed with the London Government in its refusal to authorize it. The issue is to be considered at a special SNP conference in March.
Sturgeon had proposed, since there is no permission from the Sunak government for a consultation like the one in 2014, to convert the next elections into plebiscites, either the regional ones or the British general ones. But it was a road full of obstacles and with little prospect of success. Even a victory would be pyrrhic if there is a huge abstention (unionists could boycott the elections) and if it lacks recognition both from London and from the European Union and the international community. The “Catalan way” (an unauthorized referendum) has been ruled out.
The outgoing prime minister has been the face of the Scottish independence project since 2014. “It is the cause of my life, to which I have dedicated every fiber of my body, I will continue to fight for it and I hope to see how it succeeds. But it is something that goes far beyond an individual, and my instinct tells me that it was time to pass the baton to another person without my prejudices and ideas already formed, who can go further, attract new followers in the other parties " , he pointed out in his farewell.
After Jacinda Ardern's resignation as New Zealand's premier, Sturgeon was asked if he planned to follow in her footsteps, and replied that he had some sane left for a while. "But if one day I lack the energy," he said, "I hope I have the courage to do the same as her." That day has arrived much sooner than most commentators expected, although it has been more than a year since there has been speculation about a replacement at the top of the SNP.
“I am leaving not by force, but out of love and a sense of duty,” Sturgeon said. Polls go up and down, but I am convinced that the majority of Scots are now in favor of independence. But that majority must be solidified and expanded, so that a yes in the next referendum is resounding, unquestionable and does not produce fractures. That path, in my opinion, requires a new leader.”
Sturgeon yesterday described London's refusal to allow a referendum as an "attack on democracy." But the truth is that the Supreme Court ruling validating that position has caused the sovereignist strategy to go into a tailspin, without an obvious path that leads to the goal. Added to this problem in recent weeks was the controversial approval of a “trans law” that allows people to change their identity at 16 instead of 18, and without the need for a doctor's approval. Most of the Scots were against it, and the SNP itself was divided, but it was a personal project of the leader in which she burned enormous political capital.
The cause of Scottish independence has reached a crossroads where it must choose a new leader and a new strategy. Hardly Sturgeon's successor or successor will be as charismatic and skillful as she has been. There are several candidates to receive the relief, but all have dark points. Forbes, the finance minister, belongs to the ultra-conservative Free Church of Scotland, whose position on issues such as abortion and gay marriage is contrary to SNP policy. Robertson is not wanted by the left wing of the party because he is in favor of the country remaining part of NATO. Swinney didn't particularly shine when he served as Salmond's seat sitter a couple of decades ago. And Yousaf is responsible for a public health system in a catatonic state, with lines for operations even longer than in England, with one of the highest rates of obesity and one of the lowest life expectancies in the Western world.
If it had been an earthquake like the one in Turkey and Syria, the dead would also number in the tens of thousands. But luckily it has only been a political earthquake, with only one victim and also a volunteer, Nicola Sturgeon. The independence of Scotland has to find another sherpa and another route to reach the top of Fitzroy.
