The race to take over from Jens Stoltenberg as NATO Secretary General is open.
The former Norwegian prime minister has made it known through his spokesman that he "does not intend to ask" the allies for a new extension to his mandate and will leave office in October, as agreed in March last year, when the outbreak of the war in Ukraine led the allies to postpone the decision and ask him to stay for another year.
However, their desires may once again find themselves at odds with the needs of the military organization. The lack of consensus on who is the most appropriate person to succeed him and the desire of a large group of countries for Stoltenberg to stay in office for another year – ideally, until October 2024 – have opened the way for a compromise solution. that happens by asking him to continue six more months than agreed, until April of next year, according to diplomatic sources.
In this way, the decision on his replacement would be separated from the discussions on the distribution of senior positions in the institutions of the European Union, a debate that will open in the autumn of 2024 and that traditionally the Atlantic Alliance tries to separate from the decisions on his own leadership, not only to avoid being seen as a consolation prize, but also because a country outside the club, the United States, has a fundamental weight in these deliberations.
The decision on the immediate future of Stoltenberg, who last year resigned as head of the Norwegian Central Bank to continue in NATO, could be taken at the summit that the allies will hold in Vilnius in July. It is not ruled out that his successor or his successor is also decided then, although in that case a broader transition than usual would be opened.
The names that sound today are the same as a year ago around this time, when numerous voices advocated that for the first time in its more than 70 years of history the Atlantic Alliance should elect a woman as general secretary. With the war, however, the context has changed and some of the profiles that were being considered at the time may now be even more complicated than then because of the message that would be sent to Russia.
Two strong candidates for the position are, for example, the prime ministers of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, and of Lithuania, Ingrida Simonyte, two countries that take a very hard line towards Moscow. Although both enjoy significant support, they also raise doubts. According to The New York Times, America's favorite is Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, who is of Ukrainian descent. London has circulated the British Defense Minister, Ben Wallace, but it does not arouse much enthusiasm among the EU countries.
Asked about his plans, Stoltenberg avoided speculation yesterday and said he was fully focused on his work as secretary general and on the meeting of allied defense ministers that is taking place today and tomorrow in Brussels, where the contact group of support for Ukraine in the Ramstein format, by the German city where it was established. Among other issues, all countries are expected to specify what type of combat tanks they are going to send to the country and what calendars they handle.
Even if there was talk of Kyiv's request to receive fighter jets, it is not the most urgent right now to defend against Russian aggression, Stoltenberg said. “We are in a logistics race. Ammunition, fuel and spare parts must reach Ukraine before Russia seizes the initiative on the battlefield. Speed will save lives. If Putin wins Ukraine, the reading he and other authoritarian regimes will read is that the use of force pays off. The world will be more dangerous and it will make us all more vulnerable.”
