The declarations suggesting to negotiate the peace in the Ukraine have been happening in the last weeks. But the positions of the Russians and the Ukrainians are so far apart and so unacceptable to the other side that there is no hope of even a Christmas truce. Moscow and Kyiv on Thursday ruled out agreeing to a ceasefire for the New Year. And, despite Ukrainian fears of a new Russian offensive in the coming months, the feeling is that we are in a slow and, unfortunately, a long conflict.
The successful counter-offensive by Ukrainian troops in September, when they drove the Russians out of Kharkiv province, placed a highly visible thumbtack on the war map. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to forcefully prepare for three different scenarios: resume the offensive, freeze the conflict, or maintain a slow war. He annexed the Ukrainian provinces of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Luhansk and Donetsk. According to the pro-Kremlin outlet Octagon.Media, Moscow thus marked an immovable position. The subsequent months have confirmed this strategy.
In addition, the Russian leader decreed a partial military mobilization. Russian analysts interpreted it as a sign of Moscow's willingness to continue the fight, further seasoned with rhetoric of nuclear weapons.
Mutual mistrust, which already derailed the spring talks in Istanbul, increased with this twist. Ukraine's President Volodimir Zelensky has declared that there will be no negotiations with Putin as Russia's president.
But last month Zelensky no longer spoke of the veto on Putin, according to US media after being asked to do so in Washington so as not to complicate the approval of aid to Ukraine. But he did not water down Kyiv's principled position: that the Russian army withdraw from all Ukrainian lands before negotiating.
Winter has not only frozen the battlefield, but also the starting positions of both sides.
This week Zelensky has said that Russia should begin to withdraw before Christmas as the first step towards ending the conflict. Dimitri Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, rejected him on Thursday and stressed his condition for any negotiations: that Kyiv accept the loss of territories.
“There can be no peace in exchange for territories. That is definitely impossible,” Mikhailo Podoliak, Zelensky's adviser, told the BBC this month.
Peskov even ruled out a Christmas truce. “No offers have been received from anyone in this regard. It is not on the agenda, ”he stated.
On the other side, Ukrainian General Oleksii Gromov assured that "there will be a complete ceasefire only when there is not a single occupant left on our land."
In recent weeks, the West has begun to insinuate the possibility of a rapprochement to end the conflict, although support for Ukraine is officially declared "for as long as necessary."
Earlier this month US President Joe Biden said he was willing to talk to Putin, but only if the Russian leader shows real interest in ending the war. Peskov countered that Putin "is always open to negotiations" but that Russia is not ready to leave the "new territories."
On December 2, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged Putin by telephone to find a diplomatic solution "including the withdrawal of Russian troops." But the Kremlin chief countered that it is the arrival of Western weapons that "makes Kyiv rule out the idea of any negotiations."
Yesterday, Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, a historical ally of Russia, also opted for diplomacy. Moscow is New Delhi's main arms supplier, and this year it has found an excellent market there to place the oil that the West does not buy from it. The Indian president reiterated by telephone his "call for dialogue and diplomacy as the only way" to end the conflict in Ukraine, the Indian Foreign Ministry said.
Talking about peace is not possible as long as both sides see themselves as capable of winning on the battlefield. Although they have retreated, Russian troops still control a significant percentage of Ukrainian territory. In addition, Moscow is confident that the incorporation of all the 300,000 reservists recruited in the partial military mobilization of September and October will allow it to advance.
In the Ukraine they fear that Russia is preparing a new big offensive. With half of the reservists yet to go to the front, Russia "prepares the next offensive wave, probably in February," Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Thursday. Ukrainian cities, which have been suffering from massive attacks by Iranian drones or missiles for two months, hope to resist with the support of the West. The next aid will be the Patriot defensive batteries, which the United States will send to its ally.
The last attack, which makes number nine, occurred yesterday. Russia launched 76 missiles at energy facilities in 16 Ukrainian regions, according to Kyiv. There were at least three deaths in the city of Kriví Rig.
Civil society is also not ready for negotiation. According to a poll by the Levada Center, in November more than half of Russians would support an agreed solution, although more than 70% said they supported the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine.
As for Ukraine, a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed in October that 86% of Ukrainians supported continuing the armed resistance.
