The reestablishment of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, agreed last Friday in Beijing, represents a coup de effect for Chinese diplomacy. But its potential beneficiaries are in the Middle East.
Among them stands out Yemen, where Riyadh seeks an honorable solution to its unfortunate military intervention. Detente could have equally soothing effects in a Lebanon on the verge of bankruptcy, in a torn Syria that needs to be rebuilt, or in an Iraq where the sectarian scars of so many years of war have not healed. Countries, all of them, where Sunnis and Shiites have often been instrumentalized by the regional ambitions of Arabia and Iran, respectively.
While some observe the paradigm shift with hope, others, such as Israel, the United States, the Emirates and India, appear more confused.
China, for its part, has shown that it does not intend to remain locked in the China Sea. Shortly after his vague peace plan for Ukraine was scorned by Washington and Kyiv, President Xi Jinping was retaliating on the first day of his third term by making Middle East history. That region from which the US has been trying to escape for a decade with a “turn towards Asia”.
Beijing has already announced another summit for this year, in which it will meet Iran with the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. And Tehran is already talking about restoring relations with Bahrain as well.
Heavenly music in Lebanon, where the financial collapse is no stranger to the inhibition of Riyadh, its traditional supporter, irritated by the weight of Hizbollah, a Shiite force aligned with Tehran. Less belligerence would relieve Beirut, which has been without a president for six months and many more with an interim government.
The détente may also facilitate the reincorporation of Bashar al-Assad's Syria into the Arab League, if he makes a move. Talks will resume tomorrow -in Moscow- between Syria, Russia, Iran and Turkey, godfather of the Sunni rebels.
However, the apparent pacification could actually hide the anticipation of greater violence. “Both Riyadh and Tehran need a de-escalation to avoid a military reaction in case Israel decides to attack Iran,” Mustafa Numan, former Yemeni foreign minister, explains to La Vanguardia. Its nuclear facilities would be on target.
Of course, Numan believes that Iran "can push the Houthis - who control Sana'a and the most populated part of Yemen - to accept a long-term truce - now on hold - and to get involved in the UN peace plan." Likewise, he does not see the Emirates, which directly or indirectly occupies Aden and Socotra, hindering: "That would only exacerbate their tensions with Saudi Arabia."
The prospect of Saudi Arabia and Iran reopening their respective embassies quarantines some of the scripts in circulation until recently, such as a possible Riyadh-Washington nuclear deal.
Barely a fortnight ago, a Beniamin Netanyahu besieged by the protests in Israel, could still affirm: "If we expand the circle of peace to Saudi Arabia, I think we will end the Arab-Israeli conflict."
The reality is that China is the number one customer for Saudi oil, as well as the Iranian one. And the region is now more strategic for Chinese industry than for the largely self-sufficient United States.
Just yesterday, Xi Jinping once again stressed that he intends to play a more relevant role on the international scene. "China should actively participate in reforming and building the global system of governance," as well as promoting "global security initiatives."
While the waters around Taiwan are agitated, the Chinese president announces that in a week, "at the latest", he will meet with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, once again marking differences with the West.
As the spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign minister goes further and goes on the offensive: “US. considers that 13 years of war in Syria are few and continues to illegally occupy its territory and loot it.
However, whether the financial muscle - the only one that China has in the region, unlike the US - can suffice there, remains to be seen.
