For almost three months, besieged Ukrainian troops, poorly equipped, without provisions or medical aid, have faced the Russian offensive in the city of Mariupol. Now, after 83 days of siege, the few fighters who were still entrenched in the Azovstal steel complex have considered their mission accomplished, a euphemism for not talking about surrender, and have entered the phase of evacuation and surrender to Russian troops . At the same time, a negotiation has been opened for a possible exchange of prisoners.
Ukraine has declared the end of the "combat mission" in Mariupol. "We need living Ukrainian heroes and we are working to be able to bring the boys home," President Zelensky said. And indeed, the resistance maintained by the defenders of Mariupol has become a symbol of heroism and the country's ability to combat and stop the Russian invasion. This port city, on the shores of the Sea of Azov, has been heavily bombed and practically destroyed by the Russians, with a population that could not flee and has had to survive in subhuman conditions.
The fall of the city does not tarnish the tactical and moral victory that Ukrainians have endured for three months of siege and thus force the Russian army to concentrate troops and weapons destined for other enclaves in this city, as well as prevent Moscow's plans to reach Zaporizhia and reach the border of the Donetsk region. For Russia, on the other hand, what has happened is a massive Ukrainian surrender and it speaks of its greatest victory so far in the war, which allows it to establish a corridor between Donbass and the Crimean peninsula.
It is indisputable that, thanks to Mariupol's resistance, Ukraine has been able to buy vital time to train its reservists, regroup its troops and receive substantial Western military aid. A fundamental help to understand why in recent days his troops have been recovering ground in the north and east of the country, even reaching the border with Russia in the Kharkiv area. A few weeks ago, the Kremlin announced a change in strategy, lifted the siege on Kyiv and concentrated all its troops in Donbass, but their progress is being scant and they have even had to back down on some points.
In fact, many Western military and geopolitical analysts believe that, given the course of the war, Russian strategic errors, poor logistical planning and the high number of dead soldiers are delaying its offensive in eastern Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has even claimed that “Ukraine can win this war”. A NATO whose enlargement on its northern flank is practically taken for granted given its good and rapid disposition to accept the applications for membership from Sweden and Finland.
In this context, it is significant to analyze the modulation of the language used by Moscow in the face of this expansion of the Atlantic Alliance. From the drastic initial threats to expand its nuclear force and reinforce its defenses in the Baltic, we have moved on to Putin's latest statements in which he assures that he has no problem with the two Nordic countries and that the expansion "does not represent a direct threat to Russia ” if NATO does not install weapons in those two countries. A month ago, the Kremlin had described the Finnish entry into the Alliance as a "direct threat" to Russian security.
The possible Russian response to this enlargement is unknown, but what does seem increasingly clear is that, after its decision to invade Ukraine, Moscow has more and more open fronts and in some of them things are not going as planned . In this sense, Mariupol can also be a symbol of the weaknesses of the Russian army.
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