The Ensemble coalition (Together), which supports President Emmanuel Macron, has clearly lost the absolute majority in the legislative elections held this Sunday in France. According to the projections offered by the first public channel (TF1) and BFM-TV, Ensemble will achieve between 205 and 250 seats, well below the 289 that give the absolute majority in the National Assembly.
The New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has presented a radical left program, confirms its progress and would achieve between 150 and 190 deputies. But the big surprise was the expected result for Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN, extreme right), which is credited with between 75 and 100 seats, a spectacular success, never seen before for a party that used to be punished by an electoral system that did not favor it.
If this outcome is confirmed, it is a terrible result for Macron, who will need the deputies of Los Republicanos (LR, right), between 60 and 75, to have a stable majority. But even that is not certain. The situation of the president will be precarious. The first analyzes speak of a political earthquake.
It is a severe political blow for the president, who loses some of the heavyweights of his project that began in 2016. The president of the National Assembly, Richard Ferrand, and the head of the parliamentary group and former minister of the Interior, Christophe Castaner
The new situation will greatly complicate governability for the next five years because the French system during the Fifth Republic, very presidential, has little tradition of seeking consensus. In addition, it is very doubtful that the main opposition groups, the radical left and the extreme right, due to their disruptive attitude, agree to the pacts. If instability sets in, Macron always has the possibility of dissolving the Assembly early and calling new elections, a high-risk move. The danger is being further weakened and having to appoint an opposition prime minister.
The trend in results has not been a real surprise. This Sunday, Le Journal du Dimanche already came out with a front page that wondered if Macron is going to be able to govern and ventured five years of "parliamentary guerrilla" by a strong and emboldened opposition that will be tempted to practice permanent obstructionism.
