Six white stars and the country's yellow shape on the flag recall the European course Kosovo took when it gained unilateral independence from Serbia on February 17, 2008, nine years after a war that ended with NATO bombs falling on Belgrade for end a policy of ethnic cleansing in Kosovo.
Fifteen years after the proclamation of independence, the former Serbian province is still far from obtaining full recognition from the international community, and entry into the European Union - of which it has been a potential candidate since 2022 - is seen as a promise in The horizon. Russia, China and Serbia have not recognized their independence and, in the European Union, there are five member states that have not done so either: Greece, Cyprus, Slovakia, Romania and Spain.
The new wave of young political leaders, who came to power in 2021, has left a lot to be desired despite the reforms they have carried out, and the hope they dashed has turned into disappointment for the future of a country that, although it is the youngest in Europe, it is facing increasing financial difficulties and it is suffering a mass exodus.
Tensions with Serbia do not seem to be easing either, despite the efforts of the European Union. In recent months, some clashes on the border between Kosovar Albanians and Kosovar Serbs in towns with a Serb majority appear to have reignited the conflict. The trigger was in March of last year, when Prime Minister Albin Kurti passed a law to remove Serb license plates from Kosovo. The tension escalated and triggered one of the worst crises in recent years. In December, hundreds of Serbs went so far as to erect barricades, blocking border roads for almost 20 days, until the United States and the European Union jointly called for an "unconditional de-escalation."
Coinciding with this anniversary, a new plan, launched by France and Germany in mid-2022, and supported by Brussels and Washington, seems to be a hope for the second chapter of negotiations aimed at mitigating tensions between Serbia and Kosovo. This plan for the agreement is conditional on the creation of an "Association of Municipalities with a Serb Majority" in Kosovo, which would allow Belgrade to manage economic, educational and health issues of the Kosovar Serb population, and on an informal recognition of Kosovo by Serbia. , which allows it to integrate international organizations through the model similar to that of the two Germanys in 1992.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Western powers have worked to defuse any potential conflicts that Russia could use to destabilize the continent. “The dialogue process has hardly advanced since 2015. It was revitalized after the invasion of Ukraine, linked to questions of geopolitics and stability rather than democratization or Europeanization,” says Belgzim Kamberi, director of the Musine Kokalari Institute and journalist at Le Courrier. from Balkans.
Serbia needs the small victory of the association of Serb municipalities, since any setback in Kosovo's independence seems unthinkable, but also because it feels a responsibility to maintain its commitment to the Kosovo Serb population, which it already had to abandon in 1999. , when it withdrew its Police, the Army and the Administration, upon losing de facto sovereignty over the Kosovar territory. However, the government of Albin Kurti considers this association of localities unacceptable, because it fears that it could become a "Republika Srpska" within Kosovo, and alleges that the Constitutional Court determined that the creation of this institution violates the Kosovar Magna Carta.
"In order for Serbia not to become a second Belarus and move away from Russia, concessions have been made so that [Belgrade] does not have to recognize the independence of Kosovo," Kamberi says. Thus, the pressures that fall on Belgrade are to "stop its campaign against the non-recognition of Kosovo", in addition to accepting the presence of Kosovo in international organizations, he assures.
Meanwhile, a stagnant economy, a political sphere damaged by corruption, precarious wages, the highest youth unemployment in Europe and the lowest life expectancy today mark the daily life of the 1.8 million Kosovars. In this scenario, many young people choose to emigrate to other countries to work, which raises concerns that they will not return.
These young people and all citizens who want to do tourism have to queue in front of the European embassies in Pristina since traveling freely around the continent is a dream for the population of Kosovo, the only country in Europe without visa liberalization. "In the past, Kosovo was very close to obtaining a visa -when they were obtained by Ukraine, Georgia, etc.-, but the situation was complicated because there are some European countries that oppose this regime", explains the former MEP and rapporteur on Kosovo in the European Parliament, Igor Soltes. However, Soltes assures that the solution is not that far away and that we may see it at the next EU summit.
Fifteen winters after the proclamation of a "democratic, free and independent" Kosovo, the landscape has changed, but the psychological wounds of the war persist. According to a 2017 report by the International Committee for Missing Persons, 4,500 people went missing during the war, more than 1,600 of whom are still missing. For these families it is as if time had not passed.
“There was a war in which Albanians were victims of ethnic cleansing, massive rapes were committed against men and women, and there was no reconciliation process between society,” says Tefta Kelmendi, coordinator of the Wider Europe program at the European Council. Of Foreign Affairs. Public opinion in Kosovo remains highly polarized and both the Serb and Kosovar sides oppose the agreement: “Yesterday there was a protest against the association of Serb municipalities. We must also take the population into account”, adds Kelmendi.
Serbs are the majority in four municipalities in the north, which border Serbia, and in six enclaves in the center and south. An estimated 220,000 left the region in 1999 and today only 80,000 to 100,000 Serbs remain in Kosovo.
The former minister of diaspora in the Serbian government and journalist, Milica Čubrilo-Filipović, assures that the sentiment of Kosovo Serbs generally depends on where they live. "In the north, we would find more people who would support a Belgrade-administered territory," while "the Serbs living in the southern enclaves are at a loss, afraid of losing Belgrade's support and disappointed because many of them have tried to integrate into the institutions of Kosovo and since Kurti came to power they have a worse relationship with the state than ten years ago”. She and she states that "minority protections are legally perfect, but in reality they are applied less and less."
Igor Soltes agrees on the need to "find a good way to integrate Serbs into society", who are "strictly divided" in these areas, and despite acknowledging that "there is no magic formula", he believes that "there is space for cooperation in the cultural, sports or educational field." The city of Mitrovica reflects very well the division among the population of Kosovo. On the southern shore, Albanian is spoken, mosques predominate, and car license plates are Kosovar. In Serbian is spoken in the north, there are more Orthodox churches and the streets are festooned with Serbian flags.It was precisely this city that became the focus of riots in December.
On top of the festivities to celebrate Pristina's independence day, the ghost of the negotiations that will determine the future between these two sisterly and hostile communities hovers. The signing of the agreement may arrive in the coming weeks. However, today the danger is that the pact that is obtained further reinforces the current blockade situation. As Kamberi points out, "the status quo is already a severe enough penalty for both."
