The PSC would win again if elections to the Parliament were held today and Junts would be severely punished after leaving the Government, according to the third wave of the barometer of the Center d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) published this Wednesday , and that also reveals that the PP would recover positions and Ciudadanos would be on the verge of disappearing in the Catalan Chamber. Support for independence would remain stable with a slight rise of one point despite the internal crisis in the independence movement.
The fieldwork for this survey began on September 27, the same day that JuntsxCatalunya asked the President of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, to submit to a question of confidence in Parliament during the general policy debate, and It ended on October 21, two weeks after the departure of the post-convergent government and with it already fully operational.
The barometer shows that the crisis of the Government and of relations between the two main pro-independence parties would above all punish Junts, which would be left with a range of between 19 and 24 seats when in the previous wave, in July, it obtained between 22 and 27 deputies in Parliament. Now, with the results of February 14, 2021, it has 32.
On the other hand, the Republicans, who remain in second position, would not be harmed by the rupture that materialized in early October and could suffer a very slight drop that could result in a loss of one seat compared to the previous poll. The barometer gives Oriol Junqueras's party between 30 and 36 deputies, when it now has 33.
The same that Salvador Illa's formation currently has, which could reach between 35 and 41 deputies with a vote oscillation that would oscillate between 23 and 27%, slightly below the previous study.
Where significant changes are observed is in the right-wing opposition of a Spanish nature, a space in which Ciutadans is sinking and, with an estimated vote of between 2 and 4%, the barometer would give it between none and four seats. The trend, which was already observed in previous surveys, especially benefits the PP, which sees its expectations greatly reinforced given that from the current three seats it could go to between 11 and 16, with an estimated vote that would range between 8 and 11%. . Vox is also nourished by the loss of those of Carlos Carrizosa, since despite not reaching the 11 seats they now hold, they regain momentum compared to the July survey that left them in a bracket of between 4 and 8 deputies. According to the CEO, they would now get between 6 and 10 with an estimated vote of between 5 and 7%.
By contrast, both the CUP and En Comú Podem remain very stable. The anti-system repeat with a range of between 8 and 12 seats -now they have 9- and the common ones seem to rebound somewhat with a range of 6-10 compared to the range of July (4-7) and the current 8 deputies.
The survey shows a decrease in the score given by citizens to the Government, coinciding with the departure of Junts. It stands at 3.5, when in the last barometer the Catalan Executive obtained a 4 rating. In this way, the average drops to February 2020 levels and it is the same note as that achieved by the Spanish Government, which also decreases compared to the latest CEO studies. ERC supporters are the ones who best value the Government, with 4.6. Those who have sympathy with the commons and the PSC rate the Executive with 4.1 and 4, respectively, better than the assessment made by those of Junts (3.9), a party that broke up the government coalition. CUP voters give Pere Aragonès' cabinet a score of 3.2, while Ciudadanos, PP and Vox give it less than a 3.
In the general assessment of politicians, citizens give Catalans a better score (3.7) than those of the Spanish State as a whole (2.5)
The number of supporters and opponents of independence has stabilized and has not changed significantly compared to the last barometer in July. Even so, those in favor of independence, with 42%, minimally cut distances from those surveyed who opted to remain in the Spanish State, who stood at 50%. The position of the no to independence falls slightly compared to June, when it reached 52%, a figure that had not been seen since the CEO included this question in 2015.
When the question is formulated with four different answers, the option of an independent state prevails with 34%, in line with the latest CEO surveys. The response of remaining as an autonomous community gets 29% support, while federalism falls to 20%, the lowest percentage since 2014. The option of being a region of Spain stands at 8%.
Regarding the attitudes of those surveyed towards independence, 30% bet on a secession through the pact and 11% on unilateralism. The supporters of the unity of Spain are divided between 28% who believe that the best option is to resolve the conflict in an agreed manner, while 11% do not believe that there should be any negotiation.
In terms of party support, Junts is the party with the most pro-independence supporters (86%), ahead of the CUP (85%) and ERC (84%). Half of the postconvergents opt for unilateralism and the other half for the agreed resolution, according to the CEO. Within the CUP they move in similar parameters, while in Oriol Junqueras's party, 73% bet on the agreement route.
37% of the supporters of En Comú Podem declare themselves in favor of independence (11% more than in the June barometer), but the vast majority of them contemplate it through dialogue.
In the PSC, PP, Cs and Vox, the no to independence is the majority. The socialist formation has 51% of supporters who want a pact to solve the political conflict and only 14% oppose the negotiation. In the PP there is also the same number of those in favor of dialogue, although 40% deny a dialogue resolution. Supporters and Vox are divided, practically equally, between supporters and opponents of the pact.