I do not understand that now the correspondents rotate every three or four years. It takes much longer to understand a country”, says Josep M. Colomer, who has lived and studied US politics for almost half his life, where he is a professor of political science at Georgetown University. The Catalan professor, author of numerous books on political institutions and electoral processes, publishes Political polarization in the United States (Ed. Debate), where he maintains that original sin lies in his institutions.
What impact can the impeachment of Donald Trump have on the polarization of the US?
Trump has at least four pending cases and this one that has started is the weakest. He could be charged with trying to rig the elections and even with an attempted coup. In his first reaction in New York he said there would be "death and destruction" if he was charged, and then nothing happened, four clowns in the street. If he continues like this, I think he may end up very touched, although he could even show up from jail.
At the moment it seems that the Republicans support him.
There are many people in the party who think that Trump is no longer a good candidate, but the elections are a year and a half away and anything can happen. I do not rule out that there is another conservative candidate that divides the vote. And if he is not chosen, surely he will present himself under the initials of MAGA (make America great again), which he already uses in his acts. I see the problem more in the Democrats. Joe Biden will almost certainly run, but he is very old. They will need a good vice-presidential candidate; Kamala Harris has not lived up to it. But there are many unknowns.
He claims that the main factor polarizing the US is its own institutions.
The creation of the US is an unprecedented initiative, and I think they paid for the hazing. They made a couple of mistakes that have had consequences until today. The first was to miscopy the British Constitution. An executive president elected separately from the legislative Congress makes it difficult for them to agree. The other mistake was that they thought there would be no parties, but after the first five presidents the party elections began, which were the origin of a conflict that has lasted until now. In the 19th century, the level of conflict was brutal, civil war included. But from World War II and up to the cold war there was internal peace and collaboration. Especially since there was an outside enemy. When this was over, all the internal problems that had not been resolved began to emerge, because the institutional system does not allow for effective legislation. Now there is an overflowing agenda: the health system, the role of families in education, immigration control, racial tensions, gender, gun control... Polarization is back to the way it was in the 19th century.
This system also favors the election of radical presidents.
In the primaries a small proportion of the people vote, the most motivated, and therefore the most extremist. This means that in the primaries the candidates have to be more radical. But right now Biden would have an advantage, because he doesn't need primaries. If Trump is a candidate, I don't imagine that whoever didn't vote for him in 2020 can vote for him now. The result will depend on whether the Democrats manage to mobilize their voters. Trump will get fewer votes than last time.
Obama was the last president to have members of the other party in his cabinet. Why hasn't it happened again?
It was a legacy of the cold war. The Secretary of Defense and some others used to be from the other party. Trump breaks with it. But Biden hasn't either; the collaboration between the two parties no longer exists. Trump was the first president in a long time not to start a new war, which didn't help him much; he caused the internal agenda to explode and he was blown away. Now I see a certain nostalgia for the cold war.
Has the foreign policy sideline strategy backfired for you?
Completely. The public agenda is broader and more difficult to manage than ever. The government is overwhelmed.
The Pentagon leaks suggest a culture war point. It does not seem that Biden's return abroad with Ukraine has united the citizens.
There was already a Wikileaks and a Snowden, and they weren't a big international conspiracy. I don't think what happened is going to have a direct political impact against Biden.
