Is the pro-independence majority in danger?

The independence process is clinically dead.

Thomas Osborne
Thomas Osborne
09 October 2022 Sunday 16:31
9 Reads
Is the pro-independence majority in danger?

The independence process is clinically dead. And although a benevolent diagnosis places him in an induced coma, the internal confrontation that Catalan nationalism is experiencing does not augur a quick or easy recovery. The reproaches that the different actors of the independence movement cross, and now the breakup of the government coalition, make up an electorally toxic breeding ground. And this drift leads one to wonder if the hitherto indestructible secessionist parliamentary majority might not find itself in danger for the first time.

The last regional elections, held in February 2021 in the midst of a record abstention rate close to 49%, generated a true mirage. The famous 52% of the secessionist votes wielded by the most fervent supporters of "jumping the wall" (although the abyss awaits on the other side) is a double false figure. In the first place, because the votes for independentist formations accounted for just over 51% of the vote cast (and only 48% for brands with parliamentary representation). And secondly, because the almost one and a half million pro-independence voters on 14-F represented only a quarter of the electoral body. That is to say, less than 26% of the almost six million voters that make up the Catalan census.

Behind this gloomy balance, however, lies the real threat that could dislodge the pro-independence formations from the Government. In February 2021, the losses close to 600,000 voters who registered the secessionist brands with respect to the 2017 elections, were compensated by the parallel demobilization of those opposed to independence. The situation was not what it was four years ago and no one in their right mind could fear a new DUI. Hence the extraordinary relaxation (born of extreme fatigue) exhibited by the anti-secession electorate. Almost 900,000 voters of that sign then stayed at home.

As a consequence of this, the independence movement saved the parliamentary majority and even expanded it by four more seats, up to 74, in the last regional elections. The problem with this generous majority is that it could constitute a true swan song for the secessionist forces. In the current circumstances, if that electorate continues to withdraw or, worse still, goes from abstaining to actively supporting some state formation, even if it is in very limited magnitudes, the result could lead to an inverse correlation, which would leave the independence movement in the minority against to the rest of the formations.

The attached graphs show four scenarios in which, based on the results that have occurred in Catalonia over the last decade, the pro-independence formations could lose the majority, even obtaining many more votes than the 14-F. For example, secessionism would remain in the minority with almost two million ballots if the rest of the formations repeated the exceptional result of 2017. But it would also remain in the minority if it remained stuck in its 2021 vote and the rest of the groups added the same votes as in 2012 (less than 1,800,000) or in 2015 (just over two million).

And already put in much more plausible scenarios, the independence movement would lose the majority by the minimum if it reissued its result of 14-F and, at the same time, the rest of the formations – and especially the PSC – mobilized something more than 200,000 voters that in 2021 they stayed home. In this case, the parties opposed to secession would gather more than 1,600,000 voters, which would not reach 29% of the electoral census (percentage that they have been far exceeding between 1995 and 2017) and would add 68 seats.

The independence movement can trust its luck to the fact that the fragmentation is greater and more irreconcilable in the block opposed to secession (which occupies a space that goes from the alternative left to the extreme right). But continuing to play electorally with the fire of the fratricidal struggle can lead to unimaginable scenarios.