Inflation rose nine tenths in September compared to the previous month and stands at 3.5% annual variation rate, according to advance data published this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). The rise in electricity and fuel prices is behind this increase. The CPI has not grown that much in a month since June 2022.
This anticipated figure confirms an upward trend in consumer prices for the third consecutive month. Between September and August the CPI rose 0.2%. Thus, inflation moves away from the 1.9% floor recorded in June and accumulates a full quarter of escalation, although it is still far from the maximum levels of the summer of 2022 when it exceeded 10%. The monthly rate has only been negative this year in the month of January.
The evolution of inflation is mainly due to the increase in electricity prices, which in September 2022 registered a decrease. The INE also highlights, although to a lesser extent, the rise in fuel prices, compared to the drop recorded in September of last year, as a key element for the rise in the CPI.
Core inflation, for its part, that which does not take into account energy or fresh food, moderates its growth and remains at 5.8% in September, three tenths less than last month, according to advance data from the INE. . The underlying has remained above 5.5% for more than a year, a figure that the Government set so that, if it falls below it, it will eliminate the VAT reduction on certain foods in force until December 31. This data, which offers a more in-depth trend on price behavior, is, however, far from the peak of the first quarter when, in February, it reached 7.6%.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs positively assesses the path of moderation of underlying inflation: it is “the lowest rate since June of last year,” highlights the department led by acting Nadia Calviño. Regarding the general CPI and despite the rise of nine tenths, Economía highlights that Spain is “among the countries with the lowest inflation and highest growth in the euro zone.”
In the rebound, September inflation has therefore been decisive in the so-called base effect, that is, the comparison with the data for the same month last year. Thus, in September 2022 the CPI began a downward path after exceeding double figures in June, July and August of last year. It was the beginning of a moderation in the rise in prices that has influenced this month's data.
Regarding the price trend over the coming months, the Bank of Spain revised its inflation forecast for 2023 last week and estimated that the year will close with an increase of 3.6% on average, four tenths more than expected. that was expected until now.
