The Ibex 35 has a positive 2023. Since the start of the year, the Spanish index has recorded a 12% revaluation. Despite the rebound, analysts still see a path forward, although being very selective with the values.
If you look at the past, the selective has about 7% left to reach the levels of February 2020, before the pandemic confinement. "We have carried out several takeover bids this year (Applus, FCC, Opdenergy...), which shows that there are values that are very cheap," says Víctor Peiro, general director of analysis at GVC Gaesco.
The great unknowns have been cleared up. The breakdown of supply chains, skyrocketing inflation, skyrocketing energy, uncertainty about rates... Little by little the fronts are closing. In this context, from GVC Gaesco they point to construction, infrastructure, industry and the automotive sector, without forgetting the energy transition. Firms such as ACS, FCC, Sacyr, Solaria, CIE, Gestamp or CAF are mentioned, which may see "an injection of profitability now that raw materials and energy have fallen".
Outside of the big focus there are also possibilities. Among the values of mid or small caps, with less market value, Peiro cites Prosegur, Prosegur Cash, Logista, Atrys or Tubacex.
For Juan José del Valle, an analyst at the broker Activotrade, after the rises it is time to be conservative, since August or September "are usually the weakest months," says Del Valle. Profit takings are coming that can leave corrections. Hence, he recommends firms with less volatile behavior, such as electricity, health or basic consumption -drinks, food and distribution-.
He has another favourite. “It can continue to be interesting to think about tourism. It will possibly be the best year in the industry, the first where everyone will be without restrictions”, comments Juan José del Valle, analyst at the broker Activotrade. Although companies in the sector such as IAG or Amadeus have a revaluation of close to 30% in the year, they have a way to go for pre-pandemic levels. Especially to the parent company of Iberia, British Airways or Vueling, with a discount of more than 60% compared to pre-covid levels.
Entering tourism today allows one to anticipate some hypothetical good results in the third quarter, which will be known around October, he argues. In the case of the Ibex 35, this vision is reflected in the aforementioned IAG and Aena, Amadeus and Meliá. But he warns that “it is not a calm sector, it is volatile and cyclical. If expectations are not met, they would fall, ”he exposes. Double-edged sword ... he also looks abroad with the cruise companies Carnival or Norwegian Cruise Lines or AirBnb, Expedia and Booking, more focused on travel management.
What do the next months hold? In the short term, the focus is on the results of the second quarter, which will begin to arrive in the middle of the month. “The stock markets anticipate behaviors. Now they reflect that the results are not suffering, that the companies have been able to pass on the increase in their costs and that despite this, consumption is going quite well”, says Peiro.
Closing a stretch of the year that was good economically, the trend will not be the same in the second half. “With a certain cooling off because the consumer is exhausted from spending, the final stretch may be a little weaker, the stock market may remain somewhat stagnant, consolidating levels. If there are corrections, those who have been left out will be hooked ”, he anticipates. This would mean a sideways trend until October or November, when central banks may signal that rate hikes stop. "That would be collected at a good time in the stock markets, there may be a rally (general increases) at the end of the year."
