It has been the symbolic object of digital innovation in recent years. But the smartphone has entered a phase of doldrums, after a decade of exponential growth, with users lining up for the latest gadget.
Because this year it is expected that global sales of next-generation mobile phones will fall by 9%, according to estimates by various consultants. "Although folding phones and those with 5G are doing well, since folding phones registered a year-on-year growth of 200 % and 5G already represents more than 50% of the total market, the general market has suffered”, Nabila Popal, IDC research director, comments to this newspaper.
“The year has seen record inflation, a tough no-covid policy in China and geopolitical conflicts, all of which have plunged consumer demand in all regions. China and emerging markets have posted the largest declines, while developed markets are benefiting from growth in the premium segment, which has weathered this decline thanks to massive promotions and operator deals driving most of the volume in these markets. markets,” adds Popal. "The market will bottom out to the lowest level in the last ten years," Tachinsights analysts wrote in a recent note. According to them, to return to pre-covid sales levels, we will have to wait until 2025.
“With the full force of the latest iPhone launch set to hit in the fourth quarter, improvements are likely in early 2023. However, expectations of a harsh winter will limit consumer demand and, with some manufacturers of original equipment facing the challenge of overstocking, shipments are unlikely to reach last year's levels, let alone pre-pandemic levels," Jan Stryjak, an analyst at Counterpoint Research, confirmed in a note. One thing is certain: the reasons that should encourage users to renew their devices, the migration towards 5G and the folding screen technology (which has a market share of around 2%), at the moment they do not manage to encourage the purchases.
Another element that can slow down the replacement of devices is the rise in prices in recent years. “The average price of smartphones is expected to grow for the third year in a row to reach $413, up 6.4% from $388 in 2021. The last time the market saw prices exceed $400 dollars was in 2011 (425 dollars), when the market registered a growth in shipments of more than 60% ”, recall from IDC. Other times.
