This year, the Girona regions will overcome the shock of the covid and the impact of the war in Ukraine.
The professor emeritus and author of the BBVA yearbook, Josep Oliver, predicts that in 2023 the regions with the greatest dependence on tourism _Alt Empordà, Baix Empordà and la Selva_ will recover from the pandemic, and join the Gironès, the Plan de l 'Estany and la Garrotxa, which will close the 2019-2022 quadrennial with growth.
Oliver also emphasizes that, in addition, during this year "the impact of inflation has been extraordinarily regularized" and that, "if there is no catastrophe", the Girona economy is on the right track.
In fact, as the yearbook states, last year Girona was one of the territories that led economic growth in Catalonia.
The economic yearbook published by BBVA analyzes growth based on Gross Added Value (GVA), an indicator that measures the wealth generated.
According to this index, last year Girona's veguería grew by 6.5%, almost one point above the Catalan average (5.6%). It was one of the three territories, along with Barcelona and the mountain regions, that led growth in Catalonia.
The study shows that, above all, the sector that was a driving force during 2022 is services. Overall, its GVA grew by 9.2%. Among all, those that grew the most last year were commerce, hospitality and transportation (because here, the percentage rises to 12.5%).
Behind the tertiary sector is construction (with GVA growth of 4.9%). However, both the industry and the Girona primary closed in 2022 in negative (because in these cases, the index fell slightly, standing at -0.5% and -2%, respectively).
Now, Josep Oliver also remembers that he sold himself at a very low price. Because the covid caused "the collapse" of the services sector (in fact, with the pandemic they contracted up to -21.3%) and last year _despite the growth_ the 2019 records had not yet been recovered.
To exemplify this, Oliver takes figures and refers to overnight stays in hotels on the Costa Brava during 2022 "they were still 10.6% below 2019", specifies the author of the BBVA yearbook.
This dependence on tourism, in fact, is what explains that Alt Empordà, Baix Empordà and La Selva have taken longer to overcome the ravages of Covid.
As the study highlights, when the 2019-2022 four-year period is analyzed, the GVA with which the Girona veguería closed the year is still 1.5% of the last pre-pandemic year.
However, in this media there are two different realities. Because as Oliver specifies, both the Gironès, as well as the Plan l'Estany and the Garrotxa have "overcome the shock of covid-19".
However, the professor foresees that the situation will become homogeneous in 2023. "With the 'tourist boom' that has occurred this year, both Alt Empordà, Baix Empordà and La Selva, which are in the low band of this balance , they should already overcome the impact of Covid," says Josep Oliver.
The author of the BBVA yearbook also recalls that, as far as the labor market is concerned, Girona already recovered last year the employment that it had destroyed during the pandemic. In fact, according to the study, last year the number of affiliates stood at 328,000, which is 4.7% more than in 2019 (just before the outbreak of covid.
Along with the pandemic, Josep Oliver also explains that during this year the impact of inflation has been "extraordinarily regularized." The emeritus professor recalls that, in fact, the "big shock" took place during 2022, as a result of the war in Ukraine, which translated into a "lack of everything" and a "rise in prices" (in reference to raw materials and energy).
"This 2023, however, this has moderated; therefore, globally, my forecast is that, if there is no catastrophe, the Girona veguería should leave behind both the shock of the covid and that of the war," says Oliver , which believes that the territory's economy is well on its way to continuing to grow. However, the professor does not hide that there are sectors - and here, he specifically mentions construction - that still "have work to do" (because although in 2022 their GVA grew by 4.9%, it was still up to 11.2 % below that generated before the outbreak of the pandemic).
