Garamendi is favorite to repeat at the head of the CEOE, with no rivals in sight

There are two Garamendi.

Thomas Osborne
Thomas Osborne
27 August 2022 Saturday 16:42
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Garamendi is favorite to repeat at the head of the CEOE, with no rivals in sight

There are two Garamendi. The one that governed the CEOE until the beginning of this year with a personalist style and reaching a multitude of agreements with the Government, and the one in recent months, in which it is more open to internal debate and has toughened its criticism of the Executive. Some changes that many relate to his foreseeable candidacy for re-election as president of the employers' association in November. He has not officially applied, but everyone knows that he will and many believe that he will get it. The question is whether an alternative candidate will appear to confront him, or he will manage to be elected by acclamation.

He is the clear favorite, although his management has raised blisters on occasions, especially when he gave his support to the labor reform, and he has internal opposition, but so far no candidate has stepped forward. A presidency that has not been exactly calm. First of all, due to the economic implications of the pandemic, a period in which agreements with unions and the Government multiplied, with measures such as ERTEs, which have made it possible to get through the crisis without the usual haemorrhage of jobs. In addition, he has encountered pressure from the PP, who saw the CEOE as too close to the sphere of the Government.

A notorious episode was Garamendi's pronouncement on pardons in June of last year, when he said that "if things return to normal, they are welcome"; which brought him a barrage of criticism that was only partially offset by the applause he received at the CEOE general assembly a few days later. "I've had some bad days, very bad," he said excitedly.

Those who most revolted against him when he endorsed the labor reform were four employers: the Catalan Foment, the Madrid CEIM, the Asaja field, and the automobile company, Anfac. Four abstentions that sounded strong within the CEOE, which showed a strong internal discrepancy. There are potential candidates, such as Gerardo Cuerva, president of Cepyme and vice president of the CEOE, who has been gradually distancing himself from Garamendi. Cuerva positioned himself against the labor reform and is one of those who demands more harshness with the Government. One theory is that Cuerva has the opportunity to repeat the move that Garamendi made in 2014. At that time, Garamendi presented himself as a candidate and lost to Juan Rosell, but only by 33 votes, so Rosell integrated him into his team and supported to be elected in the next term. At that time, Garamendi was president of Cepyme, as Cuerva is now. However, other sources point out that the profiles of Cuerva and Garamendi are very different and that they do not have to follow this path.

Another possible candidate is the president of the Madrid confederation (CEIM), Miguel Garrido. If he takes the step, he would have the four dissidents of the labor reform behind him, but for the moment he has not spoken. The one who rules out presenting himself is Josep Sánchez Llibre, who was also re-elected president of Foment in July. The move to advance the elections now allows him to have his hands completely free, without conditions that could come from Garamendi's allies.

Another possible name would be that of Juan Pablo Lázaro, Garrido's predecessor at the head of the CEIM, who left office coinciding with the Avalmadrid case.

"If there is no disaster in October, Garamendi repeats," sources from the employer's association point out. He has strong support, such as the Ibex companies and, at the moment, his detractors cannot agree on a figure to confront him. In addition, as president in office, he has in his hands the possibility of speeding up the election process.

Meanwhile, Garamendi continues to rely on a very small hard core, in which he has incorporated the former Minister of Employment and Social Security Fátima Báñez, and has taken note of some internal complaints such as his excessive collaboration with the Government. In this context, and with elections so close, Garamendi has little room to be flexible on important issues that he has to address as of September, such as the blocked Agreement for Employment and Collective Bargaining (AENC) and the increase in the SMI.